What's up with the Black Box stats?

[theghr]

Hi. What is it that makes the "Post scheduler fix" have such differing stats than the "pre scheduler fix"?

Thanks.

[sann0638]

Assuming this is a Fumbbl question (I don't really understand it), probably best to ask there?

[dode74]

https://fumbbl.com/index.php?name=PNphp ... ic&t=24401

[theghr]

So what are the reasons for these rather large differences in performance between races, pre- and post-schedule fix?

[dode74]

Which ones in particular?

[fidius]

Off the top of my head -- the fix was intended to discourage people from playing twink min/max problem teams (primarily Pact and Zons) at TV1000 to pick on Rookies and new teams. A side-effect has been that it is much harder to recover with a veteran team, and it's easier to cherrypick with killer teams at high TV during off-peak activation periods.

So the fix shifted win/loss rates across all races, and more importantly decreased the popularity of the problem teams. It's still happening with min/max Dwarfs and Norse but it's not as bad as it used to be.

[dode74]

I took a look at the current data and compared it with the pre-fix data. DE are doing worse and humans, orcs, slann and norse are doing better (to 95CI, so for 24 races...). There's not enough data to be able to say any of the other races are doing any differently to how they were before.

[fidius]

I took a look at the current data and compared it with the pre-fix data. DE are doing worse and humans, orcs, slann and norse are doing better (to 95CI, so for 24 races...). There's not enough data to be able to say any of the other races are doing any differently to how they were before.

That's because I started playing DE. Realistically there have been pretty big changes in the Box player base over the last year. The main Pact problem coach who was activating 3-5x per day has more or less stopped his griefing. The coach with the most games on Fumbbl put away his killer Chaos for a bit while he finished his grid. The site saw an influx of newer coaches as a result of the NAF's new online ranking initiative. Norse teams have been more popular in the hands of Legend coaches. The ARR metagroup has been successful in igniting interest in lesser-used races, including Slann. In other words the data is so dirty you'll need a great deal more time for it to reveal anything meaningful.