Dice odds and re-rolls

[J_Bone]

I must be THAT guy, Heff... I seem to say "I'm just going to do a long bomb. I need a six to make this for the win" quite often and then just throw a six down. No wonder I have no friends.

[J_Bone]

Thanks for the detailed post, Dode... That's really interesting! I hadn't thought of working out a probability tree. I'm feeling like I may have opened a can of worms for myself!

[Heff]

Get an android phone and download the BB probability calculator

[J_Bone]

To be fair, when I'm doing a foolhardy thing like that it's probably better that I don't know the odds...

[Vanguard]

[J_Bone]

I do like to think of myself as the Han Solo of Blood Bowl.

[burgun824]

You can't claim that because you started a thread asking about the odds.

[J_Bone]

I know... I know... I just like to think it.

[Glowworm]

Something everyone has forgotten, the "position" of the roll.....by that I mean where on the pitch it's being made, for example:

GFI mid pitch 1/6 chance of failure ( with or without RR)

GFI to enter the endzone to score for a win ( or even tie) 5/6 chance of failure ( and you know the RR will fail )

[lunchmoney]

Something everyone has forgotten, the "position" of the roll.....by that I mean where on the pitch it's being made, for example:

GFI mid pitch 1/6 chance of failure ( with or without RR)

GFI to enter the endzone to score for a win ( or even tie) 5/6 chance of failure ( and you know the RR will fail )

No I think Heff already covered that

And in any event the chance of failure is inverse to the importance of the roll.
A gfi to score fails 1/2 the time.
A GFI to equalise fails 5/6 of the time
and a last move death or glory overtime GFI to win the league will not only fail but kill your player, and the ball will bounce out and be thrown in at the feet of the opposing teams only unmarked AG5 thrower, who will the long bomb it to a player surrounded by four of yours, who will dodge away from the diving tackle tentacles prehensile tailed str 5 monster you have, hand off to another player who will catch it in three zones, and then dodge out and make two gfis to defeat you!

Cos that's a one in a million (Dode will now do the maths) and so will always work!

[murley]

You must take in account the "Obeliz Axiom":

- Every action it's a 50% odd: You make it or you don't make it!

[Itchen Masack]

So many numbers, so many things to think about. Just believe you're gonna roll good dice and dont worry about it!

The mind is a tricky thing and must be ignored on occasion

[Maverick]

I find its better if I ignore my mind 100% of the time, otherwise it tends to have a habit of getting me in trouble.

[Hucker73]

Things I learned here:

1) I can do the maths. (Yay, maths A-level.)
2) Maths is boring. (Aaaargh, I did a maths A-level.)
3) I tend to play by following my gut / instincts.
4) I don't think it matters which system you use because, as other denizens have so eloquently said, when you really need that roll to come off, the odds of rolling skull(s) / a one = 1/1. Because Nuffle hates me.

[lunchmoney]

... when you really need that roll to come off, the odds of rolling skull(s) / a one = 1/1. Because Nuffle hates me.

It's not because Nuffle hates you, but because when you roll a 1 then reroll it to a 1 you have formed his number, 11.