Comparison of Tournament Ranking Methods

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Tim
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Comparison of Tournament Ranking Methods

Post by Tim »

Ian provided the data of 2130 NAF matches played (thx) and i did some analysis. Please point me to statistical errors, i'm not an expert :P

OK, first the number of results by race by TD difference (total and percentage):

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Race                < -3    -3    -2    -1     0     1     2     3   > 3   Total
Amazons                3     7    19    37    27    37    16     5     3     154
Chaos                  4    11    17    32    16    21    13     3     1     118
Chaos Dwarves          4    13    27    40    44    77    49    22     5     281
Dark Elves             9    15    32    60    33    56    22    17     5     249
Dwarves               13    25    67    81    75    95    56    19     5     436
Elves                  4     1     5     3     3           1     2            19
Goblins                7     5     9    19     8    13     2                  63
Halflings              4     9    19    16     7     4     4     2            65
High Elves             9     8    30    43    42    31    20    11    12     206
Humans                 6    21    44    75    66    59    54    10     7     342
Khemri                             1     1           2                         4
Lizardmen              3     9    21    35    42    49    25    16     3     203
Necromantic                  3     2     5     4     3     7     3     1      28
Norse                  8    13    30    56    40    63    30    10     1     251
Orc                   13    39    77   122   105   127    73    21     5     582
Skaven                 7    17    59   115    76    73    60    41    32     480
Undead                 3     7    32    66    78   107    45    20     6     364
Wood Elves            13    23    42    85    74    74    56    24    24     415
Total                110   226   533   891   740   891   533   226   110    4260

Race               < -3     -3    -2    -1     0     1     2     3  > 3
Amazons               2%    5%   12%   24%   18%   24%   10%    3%    2%
Chaos                 3%    9%   14%   27%   14%   18%   11%    3%    1%
Chaos Dwarves         1%    5%   10%   14%   16%   27%   17%    8%    2%
Dark Elves            4%    6%   13%   24%   13%   22%    9%    7%    2%
Dwarves               3%    6%   15%   19%   17%   22%   13%    4%    1%
Elves                21%    5%   26%   16%   16%    0%    5%   11%    0%
Goblins              11%    8%   14%   30%   13%   21%    3%    0%    0%
Halflings             6%   14%   29%   25%   11%    6%    6%    3%    0%
High Elves            4%    4%   15%   21%   20%   15%   10%    5%    6%
Humans                2%    6%   13%   22%   19%   17%   16%    3%    2%
Khemri                0%    0%   25%   25%    0%   50%    0%    0%    0%
Lizardmen             1%    4%   10%   17%   21%   24%   12%    8%    1%
Necromantic           0%   11%    7%   18%   14%   11%   25%   11%    4%
Norse                 3%    5%   12%   22%   16%   25%   12%    4%    0%
Orc                   2%    7%   13%   21%   18%   22%   13%    4%    1%
Skaven                1%    4%   12%   24%   16%   15%   13%    9%    7%
Undead                1%    2%    9%   18%   21%   29%   12%    5%    2%
Wood Elves            3%    6%   10%   20%   18%   18%   13%    6%    6%
Total                 3%    5%   13%   21%   17%   21%   13%    5%    3%
OK, then we have different scoring mechanisms from past tournaments, including the proposed BB 2004 (not considering CAS difference as there's no NAF data for that):

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Scoring Methods    < -3    -3    -2    -1     0     1     2     3   > 3
W/T/L                 0     0     0     0     1     2     2     2     2
Soccer                0     0     0     0     1     3     3     3     3
BB 2003               1     1     1     2     2     4     4     4     4
RDV 2003              0     0     0     1     2     5     5     5     5
MMM 2003              0     0     0     1     3     5     5     5     5
DO 2004               1     1     1     2     3     4     5     5     5
BB 2004               0     0     3     7    10    13    17    20    20
These ranking mechanims would result to (Khemri, Elves, Necromantic dropped due to low number of games played):

Code: Select all

Results per Race     WTL   Soc  BB03   RDV   MMM  DO04  BB04
Amazons             0,97  1,36  2,60  2,57  2,75  2,94  9,73
Chaos               0,78  1,10  2,37  2,15  2,29  2,65  8,55
Chaos Dwarves       1,25  1,79  2,93  3,18  3,33  3,36 11,30
Dark Elves          0,94  1,34  2,58  2,51  2,65  2,89  9,59
Dwarves             0,97  1,38  2,56  2,54  2,71  2,92  9,60
Goblins             0,60  0,84  2,14  1,75  1,87  2,30  7,03
Halflings           0,42  0,57  1,82  1,23  1,34  2,02  6,14
High Elves          0,92  1,28  2,49  2,41  2,62  2,90  9,78
Humans              0,95  1,33  2,55  2,51  2,70  2,95  9,77
Lizardmen           1,12  1,58  2,75  2,88  3,08  3,18 10,69
Norse               0,99  1,40  2,63  2,61  2,77  2,95  9,69
Orc                 0,96  1,35  2,55  2,51  2,69  2,91  9,53
Skaven              1,02  1,45  2,69  2,70  2,86  3,12 10,77
Undead              1,19  1,68  2,86  3,05  3,27  3,27 11,03
Wood Elves          1,04  1,47  2,67  2,71  2,88  3,10 10,45

Rank per Race        WTL   Soc  BB03   RDV   MMM  DO04  BB04
Amazons                8     8     7     7     7     8     8
Chaos                 13    13    13    13    13    13    13
Chaos Dwarves          1     1     1     1     1     1     1
Dark Elves            11    10     8     9    11    12    11
Dwarves                7     7     9     8     8     9    10
Goblins               14    14    14    14    14    14    14
Halflings             15    15    15    15    15    15    15
High Elves            12    12    12    12    12    11     6
Humans                10    11    11    11     9     6     7
Lizardmen              3     3     3     3     3     3     4
Norse                  6     6     6     6     6     7     9
Orc                    9     9    10    10    10    10    12
Skaven                 5     5     4     5     5     4     3
Undead                 2     2     2     2     2     2     2
Wood Elves             4     4     5     4     4     5     5

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Tim
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Post by Tim »

Quick analysis regarding the BB2004:

Humans, Highelves, Skaven get a major boost.
Orcs and Dwarfs suffer.
Chaos Dwarfs and Undead remain untouched.

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Post by gken1 »

break it down into wins vs losses...that's what's important.

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Post by gken1 »

aahhh this is for bb2004 rules set...didn't read those yet. i am enlightened.

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Dave
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Post by Dave »

note to self: bring halflings .. skaven and norse in case things change ..

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