Passing - a change

[dode74]

Please excuse the wall of text - there is a tl;dr version at the bottom but if you do have questions then please read the text first as the answer may be in there

Several people have mentioned that passing is considered a fairly non-viable option in terms of a reliable offence. It's a high risk strategy that tends to be last-minute and, as such, doesn't happen that much by many teams. There is also a feeling among some coaches that certain playstyles are not viable any more, and that the bash (and therefore running) game is dominant.

To test this I took a look at the stats from FOL for 36,780 games. The full data can be found on this spreadsheet: http://www.mediafire.com/?9ps2pbsufusm127
The stats for passing are collated on page 6. They're not properly formatted yet but they are correct and, I think, understandable (I've made some updates in my own version which I will upload at some points - it's just graphs and stuff).

To summarise for those who can't be arsed to look at the data, of 36,780 matches there were 30,710 (83.4%) which actually had passes happen successfully (there is no way to see if passes were attempted but failed). That means that each team on average makes 0.70 passes per game, or roughly two passes every 3 games. Totalpassing "yardage" was 584,264, with each "yard" being half a square. The mean length of a pass-plus-catcher-running combo is 11.3 yards, or 5-6 squares. This suggests that the passes themselves are, on average, short. That makes sense given the risks involved.

The full data is split down racially on the spreadsheet, but to summarise again the most regular passers were the elves (HE 1.91 per game for 4.5 squares, PE 1.80 for 4.6, WE 1.63 for 4.5 and DE 1.41 for 3.9). Skaven were the only other team to average more than one pass per match (1.23 for 4.6 squares). Not including ogres, flings and gobbos (their stats are skewed somwhat due to TTM counting the distance the thrown player runs towards passing distance), the team which passed least were lizards (0.14 per game for 8.5 squares), Khemri (0.16 for 9.5), Undead (0.3 for 6.8 ) and Necro (0.3 for 6.7). Also passing less than 0.5 per game were Nurgle, Dwarf, Norse and Chaos. Orcs, Amazons and Humans are closer to the average.

It's a touch harder to look at passes per drive as we can't say which drives were viable for passing and getting a score, or exactly how many drives there are in a game just from the number of TDs (a 1-1 game could be 2 or 4 drives). I suspect, though, that a lot of one-turn drives will have the "gain an SPP" pass instead of scoring attempts, so depending on your opinion on that it might be useful data. The main flaw is that it will include an extra drive when a TD is scored at the ends of turn 8 and 16 (i.e. a 3-drive game will show as a 4-drive game).
Either way, 90,775 TDs were scored in 36,780 games. As an absolute minimum every TD came from a drive, and every game gave one half where there could be a drive, so whichever is the larger number is the minimum number of passing opportunities. At maximum there was a drive per TD and 2 others per game (kick-offs) that makes for a total of between 90,775 and 164,335. With 51,646 passes made that's an average of between 0.31 and 0.56 passes per drive. The larger figure assumes every TD was made at the absolute end of a half (and therefore every TD was defensive). Since this is highly unlikely we can look at a middle figure which assumes every TD was from an offensive drive and that the team had one other offensive drive per game (either their kick-off or a post-TD drive). This figure gives us 0.40 passes per drive on average.
Again, I broke this down racially. The order in which the teams come out for this is, unsurprisingly, very similar to the "passes per game" stats.

A graph of the above can be found here:
http://i1013.photobucket.com/albums/af2 ... Passes.png

So, given that roughly 4 in 10 drives involves a pass, I don't think we can consider passing non-viable, but we can say that, on average, we can predict that the opponent is more likely to run as to pass, with considerable variation over races (highly unlikely for the undead races, much more likely for elves). That does indicate that some variation may be lacking, particularly for teams such as Undead and Necromantic (which are a hybrid team and therefore might be expected to play a more varied style) and to an extent Norse (which although quite bashy as players are a hybrid playstyle). The fact that UD and Necro pass less than Chaos, Nurgle and Dwarves is a little surprising as well, and I think that may show a lack of viability of the passing playstyle for those undead teams.

Having determined what we have we come to the difficult bit - agreeing what we want it to be. More variation than we have is the target, and improving the passing game for those teams would likely increase their options and create that variation. However, we don't want to buff the elves' passing game too much (or if we do we want it to be less than the buff for other teams so we can give an overall nerf or a counter). Similarly, we don't want to increase the odds for Chaos, Nurgle or Dwarves (or even Orcs) too much so that their playstyle changes dramatically. Aiming for an average of 0.50 with the graph a bit flatter and the hybrid teams moved towards the middle would be my ideal.

The passing mechanic consists of two rolls at the most basic level: the pass roll and the catch roll. Things which have an effect on every pass roll are: AG of the passer, range of the pass, skills on the passer (TZs and interceptions may or may not be relevant to any particular roll). Things which have an effect on every catch roll are: AG of the catcher, skills on the catcher.
Given this, the probabilities are shared equally between the passer and the catcher. An AG3 unskilled passer has a 2 in 3 chance to get a quick pass to the target, with the catcher having the same probability to catch it, giving an overall probability of 44% - chances are it will be a turnover. Give the passer the pass skill and that probability increases to 8/9 to get the pass away, but still 2/3 to catch it for an overall probability of 59%. That's not a massive increase and still a large chance of a turnover. I think that a part of the problem with this mechanic is that, no matter how good your thrower - even if he has AG5, pass, strong arm and accurate and can throw a long bomb accurately on a 2+, the catcher still has only a 2/3 chance of success if he is AG3. Compare that catcher to an AG4 one and you halve the risk of a turnover if the passer gets the pass off successfully. That's a huge difference, and a massive disincentive to pass for AG3 players without a decent dedicated catcher – something many teams have neither the capability nor the players to develop.
One way to level this playing field would be to transfer some of the catch risk to the passer - in other words, allow some of the passing skills to have an effect on the ability to catch. This already happens in a sense when the +1 modifier is added to accurate passes, but I think that this bonus should benefit skilled throwers rather than anyone in order to encourage building them.

To that end I make the following proposal:
1. Adjust the Pass skill.

Pass (Passing)
A player with the Pass skill is allowed to re-roll the D6 if he throws an inaccurate pass or fumbles. Additionally, if the first pass roll succeeds then the pass has been particularly good, making it easier for the target player to catch (or the thrown player to orientate himself, and the reroll may be used on the catch or landing roll instead.

This transfers the risk from the thrower to the catcher and improves the passing odds by up to 20% for low AG teams and under 10% for high AG teams. This overall improvement will require a nerf of some sort – more on that later.
The “or landing” bit is purely thrown in as an idea. You can see from the stats how few TTM attempts work, so I thought this might be an option to buff that.
2. Remove the Catch skill. It’s rather nugatory given the above, although it does have use for handoffs, interceptions and the like, which is why the next point is in:
3. Adjust the Diving Catch skill.

Diving Catch (Agility)
The player is superb at diving to catch balls others cannot reach and jumping to more easily catch perfect passes. The player may add 1 to any catch roll from an accurate pass targeted to his square. In addition, the player can attempt to catch any pass, kick off or crowd throw-in, but not bouncing ball, that would land in an empty square in one of his tackle zones as if it had landed in his own square without leaving his current square. A failed catch will bounce from the Diving Catch player's square. If there are two or more players attempting to use this skill then they get in each other"s way and neither can use it.
Additionally, it also allows the player to re-roll the D6 if he drops a hand-off or fails to make an interception.

The effect of this is that a skill which I rarely see (not sure about the objective frequency) is buffed considerably by mixing it with another subjectively rarely taken skill.
In terms of the odds, this increases the odds for passing to AG2 and 3 players while having a minimal effect on AG4 targets.

A spreadsheet of the effect on the odds of the above changes can be found here: http://www.mediafire.com/?71u8f5cbiejs37b
or in this googledoc: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... XFfU3U1RXc
The top of each worksheet is the basic passing stuff for passers from AG2 to AG5, with skills added in the bit below. The overall passing odds from start to end are all headed by “AGX Catcher” from AG2 to 4 with the skills (catch or DC) in the second column of tables. The first sheet is the current odds under the current ruleset, the second is the odds under my proposals above, and the third is the change in those odds (absolute change, so a change from 40% to 60% would show up as 20).
Importantly, the odds of fumbles and missed passes stay exactly the same. The odds of the catcher dropping the pass have been reduced across the board though, although by more for low AG teams than high AG teams. Furthermore, we’ve removed a skill which is on several starting rosters. To compensate I propose the following further changes:
4. Players who start with Catch get Diving Catch instead
This will allow humans and Amazons to take full advantage while allowing the AG4 players to take advantage of any missed passes while maintaining ball-handling capability in the form of RRs for interceptions and hand-offs.
5. Increase Pass Block range to 4 squares
This is to make the use of passing a touch more difficult. If passing becomes a more popular tactic due to this then PB will itself become more useful, and a 4 square allowance will mean that a single pass-blocker may be able to become a thorn in the side of a passing team.

Because the above changes are to A and P skills this should have a small effect on the bash teams who have little ability to take them. Orcs might take a few more goblins

tl;dr version
- Some teams are passing very little at all
- Those teams are generally AG3 with A and P access players
- Adjusting Pass and Diving Catch, while removing Catch as a skill buffs passing across the board but more for lower AG players, and may lead to an increase on the uptake of those skills.
- Buffing Pass Block will nerf passing a little across the board and encourage uptake of that skill.

I will now don my flameproof suit and await the incoming

Edit for a smiley appearing where it shouldn't

[the.tok]

I like the idea of the pass and pass block skills.

especially, pass block needs more love, it is a nice skill on paper, useless in practice.

you could also consider strong arm giving +1 to catch roll instead, just a thought, because the mechanic of "transfering" a RR, while being appropriate is kind of weird, no skill functions that way

It would also remove "strong arm is a toned-down accurate" feeling

Honestly, I'm not fond of merging catch and diving catch. Catch is a defining skill for catchers, so I don't like the idea of it being removed.

[dode74]

the mechanic of "transfering" a RR, while being appropriate is kind of weird, no skill functions that way

Well anyone passing accurately transfers a +1 bonus at the moment. What I am suggesting is that a skilled passer passing accurately without needing his reroll could transfer that. If you think as a pass and a catch roll as equivalent to the AV and the cas roll then it's a form of piling on

Catch is a defining skill for catchers, so I don't like the idea of it being removed.

Then call the new DC just Catch instead - doesn't bother me
I'm more interested on the thoughts on the mechanic.

The problem with buffing strong arm is that it is an S skill and goes against the point of buffing teams with organic P and A access.

[the.tok]

the mechanic of "transfering" a RR, while being appropriate is kind of weird, no skill functions that way

Well anyone passing accurately transfers a +1 bonus at the moment. What I am suggesting is that a skilled passer passing accurately without needing his reroll could transfer that. If you think as a pass and a catch roll as equivalent to the AV and the cas roll then it's a form of piling on

Catch is a defining skill for catchers, so I don't like the idea of it being removed.

Then call the new DC just Catch instead - doesn't bother me
I'm more interested on the thoughts on the mechanic.

The problem with buffing strong arm is that it is an S skill and goes against the point of buffing teams with organic P and A access.

I understand your point, but I would rather let the catch skill as it is, and make a skilled passer give an additional +1 to catch than a RR. I like the way the core skill are simple for new coaches too (I mean basically the skills on the basic human roster). I find it is simple and effective game design.

What you want to promote is making a developped thrower that would make it easier to develop a passing game for Ag3 teams right?
If you put an additionnal +1 to catch from an accurate or SA passer, a human catcher gets it on a 2+RR, whereas elves only get the bonus if they stand in a TZ (which is already good).

Your point on strong arm being S is a very valid one. Hence using accurate instead? but that way SA would seem even more ridiculous. I've always felt it should be made good enough that thrower would take it on a regular basis when rolling doubles (like BG get block). That is clearly not the case, for the reasons you mentionned

That plus the diving catch skill part on catching an inaccurate pass doesn't really make catch that more appealing, but I'm alright if you put it into the CATCH skill

[MattDakka]

Very interesting tweaks.
What about something to turn some of the fumbles into unaccurate passes?
Fumble is one of the thing I like least of passing.
I would like more unaccurate passes and less fumbles (at least from the Thrower-type positional).
Safe Throw reduces the fumbles, but the ball remains in the thrower's hands, and in some situations this is not good (because the thrower could be blitzed in the next turn, for example).

[the.tok]

Very intesting tweaks.
What about something to turn some of the fumbles into unaccurate passes?
Fumble is one of the thing I like least of passing.
I would like more unaccurate passes and less fumbles (at least from the Thrower-type positional).
Safe Throw reduces the fumbles, but the ball remains in the thrower's hands, and in some situations this is not good (because the thrower could be blitzed in the next turn, for example).

Then put into one of the pass skills (NoS?) that only a natural 1 is a fumble. That way, if the passer has this and safe throw, he can chose between keeping it, but no turn-over, or letting it go, but risk of TO. HMP would be even less useful though

[Kort]

First let me say that the OP's suggestion is a good one I think.

Fumble is an important and well designed mechanic that make passing a specialist's task. Without it, high AG players would just automatically be good throwers. The other reason for fumble to exist is to avoid abusive downfield passing to put the ball out of reach of the opponent. The Hail Mary Pass skill would also become useless without fumbles.

Fumbles do not occur that often; as long as a thrower is restricting himself to reasonable ranges and does not reroll inaccurate passes, the probability is 1/36. I think it is fair given that some vital dodges can fail with the same probability.

I would not mind boosting Safe Throw though, perhaps allowing the player to choose to throw an inaccurate pass instead of keeping the ball if he rolls less or equal than 1 after modifiers are applied (Natural 1s would still be fumbles).

[dode74]

the.tok - "Accurate gives +1 to the pass and the catch" is an option I'll look at for the maths. It might work nicely, but I don't think it adds anything to the catch or diving catch skills (one or the other) and leaves both of them as a bit... pants... and unlikely to be selected.

mattdakka - I deliberately kept the odds of a turnover for the passer the same.
A possible tweak which springs to mind is to change safe throw a touch:

Safe Throw (Passing)
This player is an expert at throwing the ball in a way that makes it even more difficult for any opponent to intercept it. If a pass made by this player is ever intercepted then the Safe Throw player may make an unmodified Agility roll. If successful, the interception is cancelled out and the passing sequence continues as normal. In addition, if this player fumbles a pass of a ball (not a bomb or team-mate) on any roll other than a natural 1, he may choose to either keep hold of the ball instead of suffering a fumble (in which case the team does not suffer a turnover) or he may choose to make the pass inaccurate instead, with the ball scattering two squares instead of the usual one (in which case the team does suffer a turnover).

I've not thought through the implications of this, but it would do what you asked. I'm not sure I like it as it may encourage leaving a thrower on his own, making a long pass/bomb with a view to failing it and merely surrounding/protecting the area in which it will fall. I suspect this would be far better for elves and skaven than for other teams, so I don't think I like it.

[garion]

Not bad. Just to check this because I didn't quite manage the whole wall of text lol

So if the first pass is succesful the catcher gets an auto re-roll.
If innacurate, then re-roll using the pass skill and the catch doesn't get a re-roll. That on its own sounds not so good because you are preventing a second re-roll for players with catch. However those players get +1 to catching which will benefit the Ag3 teams more which I like and still have the option of re-rolling it with a team re-roll. Diving Catch will also give them a slightly better chance of catching inaccurate passes (can't remeber the probability off the top of my head).

So I think i have that right (correct me if I'm wrong please), my only issue is that it doesn't really make passing more appealing. The reason for this is - passing is already failry easy to achieve on all elf teams, most have catchers (free re-roll) and most have pass on a player too (free re-roll). It is also fairly easy for zons and humans to pass. However the reason passing skills I think are largely ignore is not just because it is more risky than not passing but it is also not needed. People stall with all teams, stalling is the key to winning in many cases. Passing is key for quick scoring only really. This is the dynamic that you really need to focus on to change passing imo. How you can do this? God knows? It is a really tough one.

[dode74]

So if the first pass is succesful the catcher gets an auto re-roll.
If innacurate, then re-roll using the pass skill and the catch doesn't get a re-roll. That on its own sounds not so good because you are preventing a second re-roll for players with catch.

Catch (which I called Diving Catch for ease) doesn't allow a RR for an accurate pass. It does, however, add +1 to the catch roll. The only way to RR a catch roll if the pass RR is unavailable (either through being used or not being on the passer) would be a TRR. Catch itself is (I think) rarely taken as a skill, and neither is diving catch. A buff by combination might make it more attractive.

The reason for this is - passing is already failry easy to achieve on all elf teams, most have catchers (free re-roll) and most have pass on a player too (free re-roll). It is also fairly easy for zons and humans to pass.

Elves, skaven, zons and humans are not the targets. Undead, necro and norse are. Norse have a thrower and the others have 4 players with A access.

Regarding stalling, I think this might change that dynamic. It'll make an option to do the "high elf stall" of keeping the thrower in a "pocket" for a while and passing late on. It'll also make stalling less effective against those targeted teams because they will have an easier option to make a fast TD in response.

[MattDakka]

mattdakka - I deliberately kept the odds of a turnover for the passer the same.
A possible tweak which springs to mind is to change safe throw a touch:

Safe Throw (Passing)
This player is an expert at throwing the ball in a way that makes it even more difficult for any opponent to intercept it. If a pass made by this player is ever intercepted then the Safe Throw player may make an unmodified Agility roll. If successful, the interception is cancelled out and the passing sequence continues as normal. In addition, if this player fumbles a pass of a ball (not a bomb or team-mate) on any roll other than a natural 1, he may choose to either keep hold of the ball instead of suffering a fumble (in which case the team does not suffer a turnover) or he may choose to make the pass inaccurate instead, with the ball scattering two squares instead of the usual one (in which case the team does suffer a turnover).

I've not thought through the implications of this, but it would do what you asked. I'm not sure I like it as it may encourage leaving a thrower on his own, making a long pass/bomb with a view to failing it and merely surrounding/protecting the area in which it will fall. I suspect this would be far better for elves and skaven than for other teams, so I don't think I like it.

Keeping the same odds for a turnover is fine, my point was just to move more the ball forward, although by an unaccurate pass.
An unaccurate pass is usual a turnover anyway, if the ball is not caught.
When I play a passing game I need most of my players near the opponent's end zone, and a fumble in my half could spell disaster.
I wasn't thinking of elves and skaven with my suggestion, but humans: in my opinion they would benefit of an improved passing game when facing basher teams.

[dode74]

Humans and skaven both pass about the same amount - at or about the desired 0.5 mark. To be fair I think the proposed changes will help humans have a viable passing game as well (due to AG3 catchers and organic P and A access), but what you are proposing would allow a large tactical shift in terms of how you pass - you can get away with a lot more.

[garion]

Elves, skaven, zons and humans are not the targets. Undead, necro and norse are. Norse have a thrower and the others have 4 players with A access.

Do undead, Necro and Norse need any extra help though? The stats you look at suggest Necro are one of the better races in the game already do they not? Similarly Undead are considered a tier 0 team by plasmoids and Norse are not far behind in short to mid length leagues. I thought this change was more for humans more than any other race so they had a stronger late game for passing?

But anyway, I'm still not sure this would actually encourage a passing game for me. Mainly for the reasons I posted before. Though I am all for buffing skills like diving catch, giving you a +1 for hand offs would make it a far more popular choice on Ag3 catcher/running type players. Also when players have diving catch more widely spread it would probably have a knock on effect meaning people might actually consider taking Hail Mary every now and then.

[Corvidius]

Perhaps i'm missing the point but aren't there already skills which dramatically improve the chances of passing/catching for ag3 players with passing and agility access? And which limit fumbles and which allow you to get rid of the ball when being blitzed? Accurate+Pass gives you good odds of passing the ball accurately, safe throw means you'll only fumble on a natural 1 (accurate makes other fumbles less likely too), dump off lets you get rid of the ball and foil a blitz. Catch+Diving catch gives a human catcher a 2+ rerollable attempt to catch the ball and allows him to catch passes that'll land next to him which also allows you to avoid interceptions. If it's passing at higher ranges you want buffed then just make Strong Arm a passing skill.

It just seems to me that your idea tries to do something for which there's already a solution.

[dode74]

garion - it's about the playstyle. UD and Necros pass less than the bash teams. The aim was stated in the WoT

Cordivus - Not quite. I'm taking the same effects as catch/DC and partially putting them into one skill (thereby making it easier to get) and also putting some of it into the passer's remit. That way you don't need to have a dedicated passer and a dedicated catcher to have a reasonable chance of making even a quick pass. At the moment the odds of an AG3 player with pass successfully making a short pass to an unskilled AG3 player is 50%. That's not only a 50% failure rate, it's a 50% turnover chance. That's huge. Under my proposal those odds are slashed to ~25% for a turnover, making it a reasonable prospect even at lower TVs. While you do argue about the odds, the fact is that passing doesn't happen very often, so it is clearly seen as inadvisable.