Team Raffle #3 $5 ticket to get your team

Gus_the_hut · Post by **Gus_the_hut** » Wed Apr 15, 2009 5:02 pm

sent money for 2 tickets

Xanthier · Post by **Xanthier** » Thu Apr 16, 2009 2:41 am

In that case I believe I've nabbed the last one. Here's hoping eh?

daloonieshaman · Post by **daloonieshaman** » Thu Apr 16, 2009 3:42 am

That's it I will draw the winner a little later (gotta finish my taxes arggh)

Dennis

adamcarl · Post by **adamcarl** » Thu Apr 16, 2009 4:04 am

Raffle time

*drumroll*
( An unnecessary post, but what tha heck I'm exited

)

daloonieshaman · Post by **daloonieshaman** » Thu Apr 16, 2009 4:21 am

AND THE WINNER IS:

Xanthier
Gus_the_hut
adamcarl
FatherNurgle
Leipziger
grampyseer
Gus_the_hut
adamcarl
sturmjarl
Leipziger
FatherNurgle
howlinggriffon
sturmjarl
brettness37
Leipziger

WE WILL FIND OUT AFTER THIS SHORT COMMERICAL BREAK

Xanthier · Post by **Xanthier** » Thu Apr 16, 2009 4:54 am

When I saw my name at the top for a moment I thought I'd won...

daloonieshaman · Post by **daloonieshaman** » Thu Apr 16, 2009 4:55 am

Thank you all for supporting the West Coast Quake.
January 16th -17th 2010 at the Westminster Battle Bunker

My sister-in-law drew and the winner is:

On a side note here is an article written about the odds of doing thins by one of our league members

Why Go-For-It's suck
by marikus » Mon Apr 06, 2009 10:23 am

Actaully, go-for-it's rock, and I love to Go for it just as much as the next guy. But, one thing i've noticed, and it always churns my guts when i see it, is the following play:

"If i go for it twice, the pass is now on a 3 instead of a 4."

This is statistical suicide, and you're just hurting your odds of success.

At is most basic, the odds of making 2 consecutive Go-For-It's is 69%. Straight off the box. and the difference between an Accurate pass on a 4 as opposed to on a 3 is 16.67% . So... you're add a 31% failure chance to increase you success rate by 16.67%, essentially shooting yourself in the foot by around 14%. Even if you factor other skill into the mix, such as "Well, the guy going for it has Sure Feet". You're still at least a 7% dog if you make the extra go for it's. It's just bad Bloodbowl.

Lets look at a situation. You have a human thrower with Pass, throwing to a Human Catcher with Catch. At his max move it's a Long Pass (-1 to the roll). With 2 go-for-it's It's a Short pass (Straight roll).

Lets have a look at out odds if we just throw it without the go For its.

Pass on a 4 With a Pass skill Reroll: 75%
Catch on a 3 with Catch Skill Reroll: 88%
Odds of success: 66%

And now if we make the Go-For-its
Go For it number 1: 83%
Go For It number 2: 83%
Pass on a 3 with Pass skill Reroll: 88%
Catch on a 3 with Catch skill Reroll: 88%
Odds of Success: 53.35%

The Go For it increase you odds of failure by 12.65% almost a Full 1/6th.

Actaully, thinking in terms of sixths is a good way to calculate the odds on the fly. If we take every roll as a set of sixths (for example Add a Go For it add a One Sixth chance of failure, and a Pick up on a 3 has a 2 sixths chance of failing) we can have a quick look at the above situation again. We're adding 2 sixths (the 2 Go-for-its) to remove 1 sixth (the Pass on a 4 down to a 3). And that's just not worth it in anyone's book.

Also, think not just in terms of Success Vs Failure, but in what happens with that success or failure. If you fail a pass it can still be inaccurate. You might get really lucky, and it scatters back to your guy, or to one of your other guys, and not cause a Turnover. Even if it lands in an empty square, there is a good chance it's end up in one of your guys tackle zones or out of the reach of your opponents players. Not great, but not the end of the world, either. Even on a fumble, the ball stays in the passers tackle zone, and your opponent needs to deal with it. If you fail a Go For It, you cough up the ball AND potentially injure one of your own players. You enemy is out for you blood. No need to do him any favours. Even if you avoid injury, you're player is lying on the pitch, no longer exerting a tackle zone, and no longer affecting you opponents following turn. Unless he pulls a Hyper Aggressive move, and decides to foul that guy. It's all bad.

At the end of the day, you can play bloodbowl however you like, but if you make these go for it's and come up short, don't come crying to me about bad luck. The math doesn't lie.

Resident Malcontentmarikus

now back to our regular scheduled programing ...

The winner is

sturmjarl

congrats
please send me a note about which team you would like

sturmjarl · Post by **sturmjarl** » Thu Apr 16, 2009 6:38 am

YAY!!
Oh, and I REALLY liked that "go for it" article. I HATE falling down on GFI's!

adamcarl · Post by **adamcarl** » Thu Apr 16, 2009 2:32 pm

Congrats stumjarl!

howlinggriffon · Post by **howlinggriffon** » Thu Apr 16, 2009 2:48 pm

Well done! What team are you going to go for?

grampyseer · Post by **grampyseer** » Thu Apr 16, 2009 2:49 pm

Congratulations

daloonieshaman · Post by **daloonieshaman** » Thu Apr 16, 2009 3:00 pm

what do you think of me throwing in a West Coast Quake board package in the mix for the next (can't use the word raffle) ... competition

D

howlinggriffon · Post by **howlinggriffon** » Thu Apr 16, 2009 4:16 pm

Excellent idea - then the people who own all the teams might still be interested in having a go.

sturmjarl · Post by **sturmjarl** » Thu Apr 16, 2009 7:35 pm

I'm going to get the Chaos Team and use them for a Chaos/Nurgle team. I'll use Zombies from my Necro Team as Rotters. I'll just need to find an appropriate 4th Chaos Warrior.

daloonieshaman · Post by **daloonieshaman** » Fri Apr 17, 2009 12:01 am

will do
pm me your address