Talk Fantasy Football

Hi guys

Does anyone have any access to actual data on overtime? Specificially I'm keen to understand how big a factor receiving at the start of overtime is on the result... is there a clear correlation between receiving (or winning the toss, if that data is available) for OT and the overall winner of the game itself?

Any help appreciated.

Cheers

Steve

I would guess Fumbbl would be your best bet, but don't know if that data is recorded or accessible.

Cyanide is no good as it uses different OT rules.

I don't have the data, but yes of course. Have you not played much?

Jimmy Fantastic wrote:I don't have the data, but yes of course. Have you not played much?

Overtime? No, not enough for it to be statistically significant, or at least anything more than observation. That's exactly why I'm looking for actual data, to see the extent to which there's a verifiable correlation and how pronounced that correlation is.

Shteve0 wrote:

Jimmy Fantastic wrote:I don't have the data, but yes of course. Have you not played much?

Overtime? No, not enough for it to be statistically significant, or at least anything more than observation. That's exactly why I'm looking for actual data, to see the extent to which there's a verifiable correlation and how pronounced that correlation is.

We've had a local weekly tt league running consistently for about 4 Years now. We don't play much Over Time unless it's a tournament game at the end of the season and someone needs to be knocked out, though we used to play it in the first few seasons for many of the tied games.

Winning the toss is incredibly important, and it becomes the most important die roll of that entire game, and it's been very rare for a team that lost the OT toss to come up with a win (I'm not sure it's ever happened in our league). Unless a team is just beastly on defense, winning the toss is very heavily influential in the result (which is why we prefer taking TIEs over playing OT, unless we absolutely need to as part of a single-elim tournament week).

If time wasn't a factor, best thing to do would be to give each team a 4-Turn half to try and score. If they both do (or don't), keep repeating until one team scores and the other doesn't. It's not ideal, because teams like Dwarves and Orcs and Khemri struggle a bit more to score in 4-Turns than others, but on the other hand they should have better numbers after 16 turns of bashing compared to less bashy and more squishy teams, so hopefully those two imbalances are close enough to even out the post-regulation playing field.

There was a lot of concern over this in our local league several seasons ago.

We kept track of the kick/receive win loss numbers for a couple of seasons to see if there was a need to give some kind of bonus to the kicking team to even things out. I sadly did not save the data as this was a few years ago but I do remember that the receiving team was winning just over 60% of the time. We decided this wasnt enough to merit any rules changes.

Numbers from fumbbl would of course be vastly more accurate we only kept track of probably 40 matches or so.

TL

You know it's funny. The NFL has struggled with this exact issue for years. Now they've got a really complicated ruleset to try to make it as "fair" as possible.

NFL Rulebook wrote:Following a three-minute intermission after the end of the regulation game, play will be continued in 15-minute periods until a winner is declared*. Each team must possess or have the opportunity to possess the ball unless the team that has the ball first scores a touchdown on its initial possession. Play continues in sudden death until a winner is determined, and the game automatically ends upon any score (by safety, field goal, or touchdown) or when a score is awarded by the Referee for a palpably unfair act. Each team has three time-outs per half and all general timing provisions apply as during a regular game. The try is not attempted if a touchdown is scored. Disqualified players are not allowed to return.
*Exception: In preseason and regular season games there shall be a maximum of 15 minutes of sudden death with two time outs instead of three. General provisions that apply for the fourth quarter will prevail. Try not attempted if touchdown scored. If there is no score in the 15 minutes, the game shall end in a tie.

Now the rules are a complete mess. The answer is to go with the NCAA way of doing things which is basically a shootout as in soccer/football (not American). Each team alternates with four downs to score. At the end of a set of attempts where each team gets a shot, if there is a winner, they win. If not, rinse and repeat.

How do you do this in Blood Bowl? Put the ball 6 squares from the end zone and let the defense set up with a line of scrimmage at four squares from the end zone. Then the offense sets up. Then switch teams. Alternate until you have a winner. The problem is what happens when there aren't enough players left on the pitch on both teams to cover the field... I'm not sure.

Resisting the urge to turn this into a thread about how the NCAA OT rules are just silly and the new NFL rules are actually pretty good... so I won't do that

OP is asking for hard data, not anecdotal evidence... sorry to say I can provide none. Galak's MBBL used to collect reams of data, did they ever use OT?

Not in the challenge days. I can't remember if it used it in the league/play-off days, but even if it did, they were older rulesets and minimal number of games.

Shteve0 wrote:Does anyone have any access to actual data on overtime?

There's no useful data on that, so you're likely stuck with anecdote. The places that can produce a useful amount of data typically don't do much OT, they just let things end in ties.

siggyllama wrote:Galak's MBBL used to collect reams of data, did they ever use OT?

That wouldn't be enough data to make any statistically valid conclusions from. You'd need a bunch of data from a wide variety of matches involving different teams.

mzuckerman wrote:How do you do this in Blood Bowl? Put the ball 6 squares from the end zone and let the defense set up with a line of scrimmage at four squares from the end zone. Then the offense sets up. Then switch teams. Alternate until you have a winner. The problem is what happens when there aren't enough players left on the pitch on both teams to cover the field... I'm not sure.

The last thing BB needs is something that makes a game go even longer than it already does. A league's best bet (imho of course) is to establish a simple rule of thumb for deciding the outcome for ties when games simply cannot be ties, possibly the way boxing does. When the match ends in a tie on the pitch, other factors are compared and the winner is decide that way... say, you use the following criteria in order (check each one, if they're the same, move to the next, until you find one that differs and use that):

1) Team with more SPP earned during the match.
2) Team that began the match with lower TV
3) Pray to nuffle for guidance (flip a coin)

As long as people know how ties are settled, you're good to go... and you don't have to play for an additional half hour to an hour!

I kind of agree with VM, a simple set of rules for the eventuality is the best solution

I lost with Dark Elves http://bbloc.calgarygamers.net/index.ph ... obj_id=162 against Undead http://bbloc.calgarygamers.net/index.ph ... obj_id=170 in overtime, I kicked to my opponent. Game sheet here http://bbloc.calgarygamers.net/index.ph ... rt&mid=743

Thinking that the rules reward the team receiving the ball in OT too much, but I don't know what could be done to change it.

VoodooMike wrote: The last thing BB needs is something that makes a game go even longer than it already does. A league's best bet (imho of course) is to establish a simple rule of thumb for deciding the outcome for ties when games simply cannot be ties, possibly the way boxing does. When the match ends in a tie on the pitch, other factors are compared and the winner is decide that way... say, you use the following criteria in order (check each one, if they're the same, move to the next, until you find one that differs and use that):

1) Team with more SPP earned during the match.
2) Team that began the match with lower TV
3) Pray to nuffle for guidance (flip a coin)

As long as people know how ties are settled, you're good to go... and you don't have to play for an additional half hour to an hour!

You could say the same thing about real football (any sort), basketball, baseball, hockey, all the way down to lacrosse. Those are all lengthy games that require some level of endurance on the part of the participants and spectators. Yet somehow no one wants the Super Bowl to be decided by comparing the starting quarterbacks' completion percentages (or points via touchdown, fewest turnovers, etc.).

I would assume (apologies in advance for not having any data to back this up), that most people playing in a Blood Bowl league enjoy playing Blood Bowl. When they've done well enough to earn their way into a game that can't end in a tie, and then play through 16 turns that fail to produce a victor, they won't (or shouldn't) be satisfied with flipping a coin to determine who won.

Sudden-death overtime can typically be played in twenty minutes. But those games that go on for another hour or two, those are the ones that the participants and their league-mates will be talking about for years to come.

DixonCider wrote:I lost with Dark Elves http://bbloc.calgarygamers.net/index.ph ... obj_id=162 against Undead http://bbloc.calgarygamers.net/index.ph ... obj_id=170 in overtime, I kicked to my opponent. Game sheet here http://bbloc.calgarygamers.net/index.ph ... rt&mid=743

Thinking that the rules reward the team receiving the ball in OT too much, but I don't know what could be done to change it.

Well, as they used to say when discussing the NFL's previous overtime rules, defense is part of the game, too.

This is obviously anecdotal, but I've just won two overtime games in a row despite losing the OT coin toss (and thus starting on defense). It's daunting, but the allure of the quick score to win tends to force the offense into pushing a bit too hard and making mistakes. There's also the fact that teams tend (unsubstantiated) to be out of rerolls by then. That can hurt a defense, too, but I believe that moving the ball generally involves a few more die rolls.