New EXP/Ageing Rule

[Ghost of Pariah]

Galak,
It's not just when it happens that concerns me. It's how many are going to age all at once.
If all my linemen start ageing at the same rate how can I replace them all at once? You can't and you are probably going to have a problem winning games and earning money until you do...and under the new money system that's gonna take a long time.

Wasn't something like this shot down for the LRB because we didn't want multiple players aging in the same game? I know the odds say that won't happen...very often, but it's still going to happen and when it happens to me I'll be pissed. I'll be pissed that the team I coached to a 12-1 record suddenly can't field 11 players and win a match!

[Grumbledook]

Galak how did u get those percentages.

Aging on your 7th game having a gained a skill right.

Current aging == getting under 3 on 2d6 right so thats double 1
Exp == rolling a 1 on the exp roll

so is that not 1/11 compared to 1/6

but then getting a 1 with exp the aging chart does have null effects current one doesn't so:

thats (1/6)*(4/11) which is about 0.06 for no affect.


Pariah, as for that not happening overnight what about the france 98 world cup final where brazil were just poop for the entire match and handed the cup to france on a plate, there is a nice example for you. If it did happen then yes i would accept it. The odds are rediculous though

i mean u need to get 1/6 for all 9 players then u have to get a 4/11 chance of losing a stat, or a 1/11 chance for a niggle. If this did happen i would accept it yes.

[Ghost of Pariah]

Playing badly for one game is not the same as having the whole suddenly suck forever after.

Choking under pressure != ageing.

Half the team retiring (or being ready for retirment) = ageing.

[GalakStarscraper]

Galak how did u get those percentages.

Aging on your 7th game having a gained a skill right.

Current aging == getting under 3 on 2d6 right so thats double 1
Exp == rolling a 1 on the exp roll

so is that not 1/11 compared to 1/6

but then getting a 1 with exp the aging chart does have null effects current one doesn't so:

thats (1/6)*(4/11) which is about 0.06 for no affect.

LRB aging with one skill: 1/36 = 2.7778% (rolled double 1s)
Odds of aging with EXP on game 7: 0.09

Galak

[Grumbledook]

you don't need a 6 to get the +1 exp untill u have 5exp if its your first match anything will give you 1exp. you need to beat your current exp total to get +1 exp, or did i read the initial post wrong?

Not that i am bothered i like the exp system.

Getting 8 or 9 players with - stats isn't going to make them suck forever after, you can get around that, it takes time. Its like the football clubs here who are in millions of debt they have to sack players cut wages, make other cut backs and work on the team to get it back up. Whats to say you don't retire some then that players rolls a 6 every match after and shoots up.

Of course it does take a strong coach to work through hard times, maybe your just one of those coaches who gets sacked by the board after a bad run

[GalakStarscraper]

Galak,
It's not just when it happens that concerns me. It's how many are going to age all at once.
If all my linemen start ageing at the same rate how can I replace them all at once? You can't and you are probably going to have a problem winning games and earning money until you do...and under the new money system that's gonna take a long time.

Wasn't something like this shot down for the LRB because we didn't want multiple players aging in the same game? I know the odds say that won't happen...very often, but it's still going to happen and when it happens to me I'll be pissed. I'll be pissed that the team I coached to a 12-1 record suddenly can't field 11 players and win a match!

What was shot down was a game based system where the aging rolls where made ever X games. For instance one proposed system was one where every 6 games you'd roll for aging. However this meant that a teams playing only 5 games would almost always be better than a team after their 6th game. So this was shot down for that reason.

We've run the numbers and around the 29th!!!!!!! game assuming you still have your original 12 players than one average ONE player per a game will fail an aging roll.

One of the MAJOR points of this system is to not introduce aging unless the coach plans on playing the team for a great number of games. The oldest team I've EVER coached in all my years playing tabletop was 18 games ... under the LRB system I would have had SEVERAL aged players .. under the EXP most likely virtually none to maybe one. Pariah, you can talk all you want about this system screwing over your 13 game team but its just not realistic. Given the SAME luck, the LRB system would have screwed you a LOT worse. Until the 19th game, the LRB system is going to screw you harder no how you try to state your case.

Now after 19 ... yes, the EXP system is going to start inflicting an OCCASSIONAL aging result assuming you've kept your starting roster. The effect doesn't become pronouced until you have most of your team at the 29 game mark at which point it starts generating one effect per a game (assuming that the majority of your team (14 to 15 players) are at 6 EXP points)

My point and the reason I support the system is that if you are going to play a team for 20+ games than you should have to start doing some active management of your team and realization of the possibility of upcoming aging will be one of those management issues.

No matter how you argue it Pariah ... until you get past 19 games the current rules are worse for screwing your 12-1 team than the EXP rules.

Galak

[GalakStarscraper]

you don't need a 6 to get the +1 exp untill u have 5exp if its your first match anything will give you 1exp. you need to beat your current exp total to get +1 exp, or did i read the initial post wrong?

Ran those numbers too quickly ... sorry .. you are right.

LRB age by game 7: 2.78% (1/36)
Exp age by game 7: 0.09% ((5/6)*(5/6)*(4/6)*(3/6)*(2/6)*(1/6)*(1/6)*(15/36)

Galak

[Ghost of Pariah]

Grumbledook,
You know nothing of me or my coaching style.
Would you like me to show what kind of a coach I am?
Perhaps you are a person who thinks he knows another's personality just by reading some words on a screen?
I can see several players retiring from a high TR team but I don't think that my TR is going to be that high after 15 or 20 games. (I consider high TR 300+) In my league coaches will retire whole teams at that point anyway. Being forced to do so at a 200 or 250 TR is not a good thing to me. We prefer our teams to go out on top, not with half a dozen crappy players.


Galak what are the odds of having multiple players age at the same time?

Fine, Galak. The real reason I don't like the system is because I'm sick to my stomach of rules changes.

I haven't played 2 seasons in a row with the same rules since I don't know when. I have no idea anymore how anything works in the long term because nothing stays the same for more than a month.
We were told over and over again that the rules were designed to play off of each other and that changing or omitting one would hurt the others.
I'd like to see what data the BBRC has for long term use of the original BB2K1 rules. How many seasons did they test them before they changed them?

[Ghost of Pariah]

What's on the chopping block next?
Blocking rules? Fouling? Money?

Certainly not secret weapons, the crappy weather table, the crappy handicap table, or anything else that REALLY needs repair!

[Grumbledook]

At a tr of 250 i am sure u could phase in new players and build the team up again. No one is forcing you to retire the team, are you saying that you wouldn't be able to cope with a few injuries, cause its the same affect.

Anyway like Galak said takes about 30 games to get one player a game having an ageing effect. The current system would be a lot worse anyway which you seem to be ignoring.

If i am right you aren't likly to get a whole team who sufferes form aging not being able to turn up for the next match, i think only 2 of the results mean you miss the next game.

[GalakStarscraper]

I can see several players retiring from a high TR team but I don't think that my TR is going to be that high after 15 or 20 games. (I consider high TR 300+) In my league coaches will retire whole teams at that point anyway.

Then I don't under the problem. As it these effects don't really kick in until game 19 and don't REALLY kick in until game 29.

Galak what are the odds of having multiple players age at the same time?

Assume that you are playing Halflings and buy a FULL roster of 16 players when you start the team and by some miracle they NEVER get injure or retired so that you just keep playing with the same 16.

Starting with your 16th game, your odds of aging with permanent effects would be for your 16 player team would be:
1 player: 68.39%
2 players: 7.44%
3 players: 0.53%
4 players: 0.04%

The reason is that statistically speaking your entire team would reach 6 EXP on their 15th game so it would not be until the 16th game before each started having aging potential. I'm pretty sure I did the math right on this one.

Galak

[GalakStarscraper]

What's on the chopping block next?
Blocking rules? Fouling? Money?

No, maybe, No

Certainly not secret weapons, the crappy weather table, the crappy handicap table, or anything else that REALLY needs repair!

Actually Pariah from answering emails from rookie coaches across the world through Blood-bowl.net, there are a LOT of coaches out there that REALLY think the aging rules need repaired. In fact, I'd be willing to say its their #1 issue of concern with the current rules. The two major things I hear ... aging happens too early in a player's career and that it shouldn't be linked to the skill roll. The EXP system deals with both these major issues.

Galak

[Ghost of Pariah]

Well I voiced my concerns. In the end it won't matter because I'm sure the rules will change before I ever reach 19 games.

Let's just say that my opinion is that this system is not worth testing until there is sufficient testing of the old system.


As for coaches complaining about ageing...
That is going to happen no matter what. No system is going to be to their liking.

[GalakStarscraper]

Fine, Galak. The real reason I don't like the system is because I'm sick to my stomach of rules changes.

I haven't played 2 seasons in a row with the same rules since I don't know when. I have no idea anymore how anything works in the long term because nothing stays the same for more than a month.

We were told over and over again that the rules were designed to play off of each other and that changing or omitting one would hurt the others.
I'd like to see what data the BBRC has for long term use of the original BB2K1 rules. How many seasons did they test them before they changed them?

Pariah ... I'm not sure what you want here. Neo already said that this rules review would not actually make an game changes most likely. Clarificiation YES ...changes NO. Any new rules are going to introduced as Experimental and not become official for another year. So you got what you wanted 2 season in a row with the same rules.

As for test data, this aging suggested change is the result of a lot of email (some of which I've seen because of the fact that I answer a lot of email through B-B.net) which shows that there are a lot of folks out there who would rather see a system of aging that doesn't kick in until MUCH later in a team's life and isn't linked to skill rolls. The reason both Acerak and Neo and myself for that manner have supported it is that it solves a lot of the problems that the BB masses (not the TBB ones but the broader community) have with the current aging rules. IE looking at the EXP system is the BBRC trying to listen to the people like everyone wants them to.

Now I realize that these guys are damned if they do and damned if they don't in general. But this time they are trying to address a major concern by the larger community with a system that specifically fixes their issues.

I don't think this is the case of the BBRC abusing its position, instead this time I think they are doing exactly what they are supposed to be doing.

Galak

[GalakStarscraper]

As for coaches complaining about ageing...
That is going to happen no matter what. No system is going to be to their liking.

Actually I emailed most of the folks who have emailed me over the last several months with questions/concerns about aging about this proposed change without doing anymore in the email then laying out the system and the email response has been 100% how soon can this happen.

Its not perfect ... but it sure goes down easier.

Galak