Math Vs flavor?

Ghost of Pariah · Post by **Ghost of Pariah** » Wed Feb 05, 2003 12:21 am

I'm amazed how many people think casinos are giving away free money.
We have river boat casinos here and it amazes me how many people I know go night after night and piss away hundreds of dollars because they have some 'system" that can't fail. Please.
There's a reason that Craps is a staple in every gambling house.

Matsu · Post by **Matsu** » Wed Feb 05, 2003 7:48 pm

There is no system that can give a player a percentage advantage against the house in craps. The same is true for roulette, and nearly every card game in the casino.

The one and only exception to this is blackjack - by means of counting cards and changing betting increments during favorable situations that can occur, it is possible to gain a percentage advantage over the house over a period of time. This has been mathematically proven over and over again (c.f. "Beat the Dealer" by Edward Thorpe). However, the techniques are NOT simple to learn, the casinos know what to look for and you are 'politely asked to stop playing' when they figure you out. 99.9% of Blackjack players don't know how to use one of the actual effective systems which is how the house can continue to make lots and lots of money on Blackjack.

Just FYI.

Mestari · Post by **Mestari** » Thu Feb 06, 2003 8:15 am

Could someone quickly point out the rules for crap or whatever it's called

Indigo · Post by **Indigo** » Thu Feb 06, 2003 11:59 am

sure

http://www.games-workshop.com/fanatic/s ... temid=mord

here are the rules for crap

Skummy · Post by **Skummy** » Thu Feb 06, 2003 2:00 pm

http://www.online-casino-tips.com/craps-rules.html

Marcus · Post by **Marcus** » Thu Feb 06, 2003 4:07 pm

Alright, I have to dive in here.

I'm a poker player. Odds are an essential part of playing poker, but they are not the only factor. They are a tool you use to inform your decisions.
In bloodbowl I use a system for assessing odds that is very similar to a mechanism you use in poker. I find it invaluable for assessing how optimal a given play is.

I was going to type out at length the method I use but to hell with it, I'm gonna hang on to it.

Anyone who's read any of my posts probably know what it is anyway.

Indigo · Post by **Indigo** » Thu Feb 06, 2003 4:59 pm

well I do for simple things like:

Do I throw that long bomb on a 6 with an interception possible or go for it two squares and reduce it to a long pass with no interception?

anything more complicated than that and I use "judgement"

is this similar to what you meant?

High & Mighty · Post by **High & Mighty** » Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:05 pm

OK, quickly, there's of course a caveat regarding craps and that is that every casino tweaks the house odds, sort of like Walmart selling one product below cost in order to get people in the store cause they know people will buy all the other stuff.

For craps, it comes down to two things, whether the particular casino offers 8:5 or 9:5 odds on the 4 and 10 point (so odds of rolling a 4 before a 7...real odds are 10:5 so they under pay either way) and the commission for buy bets, almost always 5% but some only collect when you win and some only when you win on certain numbers.

Basically you play with the house that the point won't be made at the same time hedging your bet by betting the number will win. When the rules are against you, the median person leaves with 1.3% less than they came with, and when they are favorable, the median person leaves with .2% more than they came in with (or something like that).

The real joy of the strategy either way comes from the fact that you stand there and play for hours with 60/80 dollars on the table at a time, but you only have an expected payout of $2 or loss of $3 (for example) so you're not risking or gaining alot each time, but you get comped out the wazzoo since that is based on how much you bet, so you drink for free all night.

As for why it can happen, there's all sorts of social pressure not to bet on the Don't Pass line, casino's aren't that afraid of a .2% edge if you play one way all night long because chances are you'll do other things to give the edge back, and because the majority of people are playing the Pass line...which has worse odds than the Don't Pass line straight off the bat..but people aren't rational, are they?

If they were (coming back to bloodbowl) no one would ever play gobbos. Sometimes it's all about the bling bling.

carnage4u · Post by **carnage4u** » Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:08 pm

its amazing how this post about people that use math vs those that use flavor tactics turned into how to play and beat craps

altough its still intriguing to read so thats a good thing.

I will say that when playing. I try to go mostly for flavor when making a team and when making rolls or deciding what rolls to do. i will think about what actions involve how many rolls, but dont think about it to much more then that.

MickeX · Post by **MickeX** » Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:24 pm

Marcus wrote: I was going to type out at length the method I use but to hell with it, I'm gonna hang on to it.

Anyone who's read any of my posts probably know what it is anyway.

If there's a particular tread where you explain this, couldn't you link to it? I'm really looking for a reasonable way to make quick calculations in BB, I mostly end up making the whole calculations...

Micke

Munkey · Post by **Munkey** » Sat Feb 08, 2003 12:54 am

I thought i played the odds in Bloodbowl but anyone that can win against a casino plays more odds than i do. I looked at the link but couldn't be bothered to read the rules

I think that to some extent everyone plays the odds, how often do you see a Kroxigor dodge? The difference is that some people understand the odds better than others. If you could hand off the ball to an AG 4 player or an AG 2 player to try to score this turn it's not a difficult decision.

The real skill comes in setting up situations where the odds are in your favor and against your opponent, reducing the number of dice you need to roll and maximising your opponents rolls and crucially knowing when to make that risky play when you need to.

On the subject of dwarves and dodge, i know a player who has gone the other way. Having played elves for a long time he tries to dodge as effectively with his human catchers - doesn't work

Ghost of Pariah · Post by **Ghost of Pariah** » Sat Feb 08, 2003 1:15 am

So, H&H, you play craps for a living?

Why not?

Burtreynolds · Post by **Burtreynolds** » Tue Feb 11, 2003 7:28 am

on the subject of odds and blood bowl i walk the han solo path which is "never tell me the odds" if it looks good ill go for it ok i may need a six but blood bowl shouldnt be thought about to hard it can make your head hurt

Mestari · Post by **Mestari** » Tue Feb 11, 2003 8:06 am

I wish more of my opponents would walk the Han Solo path. Would make things easier