Math Vs flavor?

[Mestari]

(been a while - I participated in my first fencing tournament (epée) from friday to sunday and couldn't check the board)

Maths is useful in BB games as long as you're dealing with only known variables. If you get results with unknowns or tediously long calculations, the use of making decisions based on maths vanishes.

Example of a good place to use math for:

Take one more GFI and then throw a shorter pass, OR
throw a longer pass?
That's something that I use maths for, and pardon me but I don't need a calculator to do it. Knowing the odds of success and catastrophic failure in the dice rolls that you make is very useful.

But remember that the decision may have to be based on tactical aspects too: questions such as "what if I fail at this point" etc. are ones that need to be asked before applying a tactical decision because it's 0,023% more likely to succeed.

[Dave]

I use both actually, and will not be the only one who does it, but I feel Math comes into play at other points as well: Playing Style. You can try to play it hard with Wood Elves but the dice will (at least should) show you wrong.

If you prefer this style of play orcs or whatever hitting team will serve you better. The math actually is incorporated in the fluff here, and thus in playing style and thus in anyone's game.

[High & Mighty]

Strategy is much more important than odds. You've gotta know when to take the risks and when to hold back. But I agree with Mestari, knowing the statistical risks (and doing them quickly in your head) obviously helps. I also find a sick enjoyment in wasting time wading through the numbers to see where the game design tends to drive things. But that's not really related to my gameplay.

At the end of the day, I play BB because it's fun and perhaps the greatest game ever created (Axis and Allies might beat it out if you could finish a game in under 8 hours). On the field, it's all about panache.

If these mathmatical formulas worked then these people would be rich Craps players instead of poor Blood bowl players.

I take offense at that. Rich the Craps player is my occupation. See:

Fortunately, unlike BB, knowing the odds in craps is all you need to play the one game in the casino in which you can statistically beat the house odds and make money long-term. But there are still plenty of people who have a good time only making sucker bets for the enjoyment for the rare occassions when they pay out.

-Rich

[Ghost of Pariah]

Knowing the odds and beating the odds are waaaaay different my friend.

You never know what end of the curve Lady Luck is gonna hang around.

[BoB]

The thing that shits me is i can calculate odds all day, the fact that the next dice i roll is a one means that no matter what i worked out, it didnt work.
The math tells you whether or not it is likely you could succeed.
But who hasnt played a game where even 2+'s seem unlikely while the other guy is hitting your big guy unevens against and just cant seem to hurt himself??

Probability is a hideous bitch-goddess and doing the math just makes her angry.

[High & Mighty]

Knowing the odds and beating the odds are waaaaay different my friend.

You never know what end of the curve Lady Luck is gonna hang around.

Yes, but at craps, you can sit there and play for hours upon hours with simple dice rolls and actually reach that mythical perfect distribution...all you need to make sure you go home richer than you came.

In bloodbowl, it all comes down to what you get for those few critical rolls. You just can't rely on the odds. Sometimes you just have to close your eyes, cross your heart, and let your gobbo fly.

[Ghost of Pariah]

...all you need to make sure you go home richer than you came.

Really is that how it's done?! Gee! Now I can win at craps and blackjack!
WOOEEE!


Wait a minute! I have an infallable BB strategy! Always make sure you score more TD's than your opponent!!!! Holy Cow! Nobody will ever lose at BB again!...wait a minute

[High & Mighty]

Wait a minute! I have an infallable BB strategy! Always make sure you score more TD's than your opponent!!!! Holy Cow! Nobody will ever lose at BB again!...wait a minute

OK. I'll bite.

There is a huge difference between a game like craps and one like bloodbowl. In craps, there is no fundamental difference between each roll. You're placing a simple bet against a simple roll. Of course your luck can vary on any given night, but it's a near certainty you're not going to make money betting 4 the hard way all night long. But if you play to hedge your bets, you will win much more often than you will lose.

In bloodbowl, rolling a 4 doesn't mean you score a td. In fact, you can roll 6's all day long and still lose. You've got to roll to pick up that ball. You hopefully had players already in position to take the handoff and others in position to set up a cage and protect you from a blitz while blitzing a hole in the defense yourself. Hopefully you have enough turns left over to even reach the end zone, and if you do, hopefully your opponent doesn't have TTM capability to win everything on the last turn.

It doesn't mean you throw the math out the window. But it does mean, unlike craps, you can't rely on it to win you the game.

[Darkson]

I gave up trying to work out the maths for 2 reasons:-

1) I'd normally work it out wrong

2) The higher the chance of sucess, the more likely I'd fail. At least now when I fail I don't know how unlcky I've been

[Ghost of Pariah]

H&H, you're too right brained for me to talk to!

[High & Mighty]

H&H, you're too right brained for me to talk to!

You'll get no argument here. You should see the conversations I have with myself...

[Mestari]

Sometimes you just have to close your eyes, cross your heart, and let your gobbo fly.

I use the term "let the longbeard dodge"

I gave up trying to work out the maths for 2 reasons:-

1) I'd normally work it out wrong

2) The higher the chance of sucess, the more likely I'd fail.

Maybe those two issues are related? (."Ooh, I'll make the more likely 5+ roll first before dodging at 3+"

But it is true that in BB it goes down to those few critical dice rolls. But if you consistently make decisisions that are more likely to succeed than the alternatives, you are bound to have a better success over long term. Also, if you can force the opponent to have smaller odds of success, that's another way to increase your successfulness.

There's no need to make extensively long decisions - small situations are sufficient: decisions between alternative dice rolls that can be made to achieve a goal and decisions on player placement to force smaller odds for the opponent.

[Ghost of Pariah]

I agree with you Mestari. I do calculate those odds. Ya know, is it worth it to GFI one more time to throw a short pass instead of a long pass, how many blocks should I throw with unskilled linemen to remove tackle zones from the ball? etc etc.


Although. I am inspired by "Let the Longbeard dodge!"

That's freakin' great! Dwarf coaches can all appreciate that I'm sure! One thing I've noticed is that coaches who have run a dwarf team and then gone back to AG 3 are not scared of dodging into tackle zones. We tend to be risk takers and less conservative in our play. I mean we ahold of some beastmen and suddenly we think we have elves!

[Matsu]

So, I realize that this is simply fuel to fan the flames, but this discussion reminded me of what is probably my favorite quote of all time:

"Luck is probability taken personally." - Penn Jillette

"Let them gobbos fly, but have a backup plan for when the go splat." - Me

[BoB]

There is a huge difference between a game like craps and one like bloodbowl. In craps, there is no fundamental difference between each roll. You're placing a simple bet against a simple roll. Of course your luck can vary on any given night, but it's a near certainty you're not going to make money betting 4 the hard way all night long. But if you play to hedge your bets, you will win much more often than you will lose.

REALLY?????
I somehow doubt that any self respecting casino would allow a game to be played that allows better odds for the punter than the house.
Trust me when i say that you shouldnt rely on that math. I know a casino manager and there is no game, i really mean none, where the house does not win if the exact average turns up every time.
That is how they make money.

Just thought i would point it out. I spose if you are playing your own house rules at craps then you could do it. might have trouble convincing the casino though