Narrow Tier BB - 2012

[dode74]

Deleted

[dode74]

How about something simple, like the order in which claw and Mighty Blow are applied.

What if you have to apply Mighty Blow first, and then Claw>

Same AV7 problem.

[Chris]

I must say I am not as worried by high AV7 attrition compared to claw teams leading to less diversity at high TVs. I generally don't mind unsing new ag4 players, which many AV7's are. The others - thralls, norse etc, tend to be fine out of the box for their main duty of getting hit by nasty teams.

Do you think your suggestion will balance what I see as the dynamic between the two sides. Hgh av take longer to skill in general but live longer, low av are faster to skill (or don't need to) but die faster. Now it could be that dynamic is the problem as once you get to high TV's re-skilling is very painful for slow to skill players. Hence why a few people have suggested variations on the MVP system (my favourite to date is a second MVP for best newcomer - which can only go to players with less than 6SPPs).

[dode74]

High AV7 attrition appears to be one reason people (not necessarily you) aren't playing them, particularly at higher TVs.

I understand the commonly understood dynamic between the bash and agi, but I would like to see some data on mean SPP gain per game per race before coming to any sort of conclusions. I'd hazard that it's probably easier for the agi teams to skill specific players (through passing or having sufficient manoeuvrability to put that player in a scoring position), but it may be that in general the bash teams make up quite a large proportion of that over the team through SPP gained from cas.

Now that I think of it I should be able to parse that data from the FOL stuff - I have passes, cas and TD data, and can assume 1MVP for each game completed. I'll look into that.

Edit: that does actually work, to an extent:
SPP gain by race per game in FOL (not including MVP).

I included cas against as the data gives a gross gain, and there's no way we can ascertain losses in terms of SPP, but cas will give us an idea of relative losses between the races. It's worth noting that the SPP gain difference has a spread of a little over 2SPP per game for T1 teams. That's not much.

Plasmoid, apologies for going off-track again.

[plasmoid]

Oh no problem. Certainly always interesting
I've got a few comments myself, but not right now.

One very interesting stats to generate would be average SPPs on the roster per game, per race. I suspect that Tough teams will just keep growing, while squishy teams will eventually slow down or even go down. Losing players with lots of SPPs do take quite a while to replace.

The MBBL keeps all postgame rosters, so those data would be a good start. But everything would have to be collected manually, so that's not ever going to happen.

Cheers
Martin

[plasmoid]

Hi Doubleskulls (and most likely Dode too),
augh - my head is starting to spin with all these numbers!

Its a good point and made me think this through a bit further. With "Plasmoids" POMB the stats are showing what would happen if you pile on all the time, which I don't think is particularly realistic. In practice I know I'd very rarely pile onto an Av9 player to reroll armour.

I wouldn't either.
But when it stacks with mighty blow, that's a different story. There is a world of difference between the 9+ and the 10+. Not to say it would mean piling on every time. But I think I've seen enough mono-strategy bashfests, where 2 swings at the 9+ seemed quite satisfying
Either way, I think the big attrition mechanism for the heavies is claw, not PO - so no doubt they'll still take some hits

About a year ago I did a lot of math for various PiOn variants. I tried lots of cute stuff just to see how it would work out. Stuff like 'you also break armor on a double'. In the end I went with the Mighty Blow version of Piling On, not because it was my own creation (I had plenty of those ), but because I liked the numbers. Still do. Unfortunately for me it seems the concept was too counter-intuitive. So I jumped to the LRB4 PiOn, because it has roughly the same numbers, with one difference - if you don't go prone, you don't quite get those numbers. So AV9 will be better off than I wanted them to be, but hopefully not much (because of mighty blow. And Claw, naturally )

Either way, looking at the stats - and this is where Dode can probably do a better analysis:
In CRP AV9 were KO+ 31.5% (of knockdowns), cas were 14.2%. With the LRB4 PiOn is drops by 6.8 and 3 percentiles respectively.
In CRP AV8 were KO+ 45% and cas 20.5%. LRB4 PiOn drops that by 10.2 and 4.6 percentiles respectively.
And in CRP AV7 were KO+ 58.5% and cas 26.8%. LRB4 PiOn drops that by 14.3 and 6.5 percentiles respectively.

So AV7 gets the better end of the deal, compared to what we have now, (right?).
Which coincidentally means that relatively speaking, Claw loses some sting too (?)

Cheers
Martin

[plasmoid]

Hi Garion,

I like plasmoids suggestion as it goes back to lrb4 which in many ways is still my favourite rule set. He just needs something else to be used as a weapon for everyone, and fouling is the perfect answer imo.

Well, I don't ever want to go back to the days of +2/+2 DP!
We even tried splitting it in the CLBBBL for a season, and a double DP lineman was still the #1 cas inflicter of the season. Yuck.

But as you know I have buffed fouling in NTBB. +1 to all fouls and then the new SG is gonna spice things up for sure

Cheers
Martin

[DoubleSkulls]

I've redone the numbers... I've said against Av7 people pile on 90% of the time, against Av8 50% and against Av9 25% (I think that's being generous). LRB6 base rules included for comparison.

Code: Select all

LRB6            
Av  St      KO      Cas   CLPOMB
7   23.1%   31.0%   26.2%   
            
Av  St      KO      Cas   CLMB
7   27.1%   16.9%   14.4%   

Av  St      KO      Cas   POMB
9    9.1%   13.0%   10.7%   
8   15.3%   21.0%   17.5%   
7   23.0%   31.0%   26.2%   

PO Av Reroll Only            
Av  St      KO      Cas   CLPOMB
7   37.3%   23.2%   19.7%   
            
Av  St      KO      Cas   CLMB
7   27.1%   16.9%   14.4%   
            
Av  St      KO      Cas   POMB
9   15.8%    9.3%    7.6%   
8   25.4%   15.4%   13.0%   
7   37.2%   23.2%   19.7%   
            
PO Inj Reroll only. MB does not stack with claw or PO.             
Av  St      KO      Cas   CLPOMB
8   10.1%   17.1%   14.5%   
7   15.8%   23.7%   18.9%   
            
Av  St      KO      Cas   CLMB
8   17.4%   12.7%   11.6%   
7   27.1%   16.9%   14.4%   
            
Av  St      KO      Cas   POMB
9    7.8%   11.2%    8.7%   
8   11.5%   16.9%   13.3%   
7   15.8%   23.7%   18.9%   

[plasmoid]

Hi DS,
looks like we aren't playing against the same people. I would have gone 100%, 90%, 80%
Currently, I see a lot of one blitz, one PiOn, per turn. The 'make it count' tactic - and then protect your man.

As for Orcs, I just don't know. I've seen so much online whining about them that I just can't seem to change my mind. Maybe when pure bash loses its sting, and wall of guard comes back, the orcs will be back to their old tricks again. I seem to recall them winning a lot of FUMBBL majors before the CRP era...
(BTW if I left orcs alone, I'd probably extend a helping hand to Slann as my 12th tweak)

But something else has been on my mind really:

I am saying change both Claw and Piling On, because I think if you only target Piling On you'll actually end up with the opposite result to the one you intend - people abandoning Orcs and Dwarves will switch to Claw teams because "at least I can still hurt people". So I think if you want to encourage movement away from all of them then you need to address both.

I think Garion has already mentioned that the skill arms race isn't quite so clear. Especially considering that both Dwarfs and Orcs start with Block, and will have a lot of AV8 targets to tear up.

But frankly, my analysis (or guess ) is fundamentally different to yours.
IMO POMB is overly powerful against AV7.
This causes the propensity to pick teams that can use this (S+M teams) and teams that can soak up damage.
IMO the decisive factor is not that Chaos bash best. They always have. And I think Chaos has never crowded the game like it does now. AFAIK LRB4 FUMBBL was not like this.
So the problem isn't that Chaos is best at this.
Being best at something (passing, OTS'ing, etc) doesn't make you dominate the game.
Only being best at something that is inherently overpowered will cause the kind of team migration that we see.
I think that if the stats for bash (including best bash) will come down significantly, then lots of other tactics and teams will once again be viable, and coaches will have no reason to migrate to tough claw teams.
Some still will, mind you, but no more than in previous editions I think.

Cheers
Martin

[Chris]

Is claw still more than a linear improvement to bashing though? Thats for me a problem.

Those numbers are pretty interesting - especially when combined with the expectation that SPPs would be more spread out in a bash team.

Would be great to know the average drop in SPPs each game, that is the players leaving the team and taking their SPPs with them. Curse our numbers for not saying everything

[dode74]

The problem with limiting them in this way is that you don't actually talk about the potential of the combo. If people choose not to use the full potential then that is up to them, but the potential is there nonetheless. If we're talking about how powerful a combo is against an AV then we should consider the full potential of it.

Martin, do you have the stats for the MB version to hand as well? I can make a comparison between all 3 that way.

Is it possible to show the average drop in SPPs each game? That is the players leaving the team and taking their SPPs with them?

I don't have the data for that.

[plasmoid]

Only the stats for using it with Mighty Blow.
But the stats for pure PO are obviously the same as for pure MB
There could be a blown decimal somewhere, but:
AV9: 58,3 – 17,4 - 12,0 – 12,3
AV8: 41,7- 23,2 - 16,9 – 18,2
AV7: 27,8- 26,7 - 21,2 – 24,3
(nothing, stun, KO, Cas)

Cheers
Martin

[Chris]

I know you were answering while I was editing

[DoubleSkulls]

IMO the decisive factor is not that Chaos bash best. They always have. And I think Chaos has never crowded the game like it does now. AFAIK LRB4 FUMBBL was not like this.

You've seen the FUMBBL stats right? http://www.cmanu.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/b ... stats.html

Games over 2000TV Nurgle have about the same number of games played as Orcs and Dwarves combined, and Chaos have about 25% more than that. Seems like a pretty dominating position to me that I'd be looking to fix.

[dode74]

LRB 4 FUMBBL was the same as far as Chaos is concerned. Orcs and Dwarves have been replaced by Nurgle and CDs. viewtopic.php?p=630704#p630704