Lucca World Cup Round 1 Preview

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babass
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Re: Lucca World Cup Round 1 Preview

Post by babass »

do we have statistics showing how many coachs will attend at this WC their first Naf-Tourney ever? and more generaly, the naf-experiences of the participants?

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rolo
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Re: Lucca World Cup Round 1 Preview

Post by rolo »

babass wrote:do we have statistics showing how many coachs will attend at this WC their first Naf-Tourney ever? and more generaly, the naf-experiences of the participants?
There are 81 coaches playing races for which they have a 150 ranking, but that only means that they have never played a NAF tournament with that race. I guess somebody could look up how many games players have played overall, but that's more complicated to read from the NAF rankings site.

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Loki
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Re: Lucca World Cup Round 1 Preview

Post by Loki »

It's never as easy as you think I have a rating of 150*... and played 9 games with Undead :wink:

*its actually 150.24 but what's a decimal place between friends

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Re: Lucca World Cup Round 1 Preview

Post by Baki »

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

Correlation between expected rank and rank is 0.7

Blood Bowl is 70% skill and 30% luck? :D

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Re: Lucca World Cup Round 1 Preview

Post by sann0638 »

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Re: Lucca World Cup Round 1 Preview

Post by rolo »

I think a scatter chart based on final position might be misleading, just because the middle 60% or so is just so tight.

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Right in the middle, in 76th place out of 152, is the ironically named team Half n Half.

One win more puts them at 28.5 points, the same as No Lucca Tall in 50th place.

One win less puts them at 26.5 points, the same as Stockbowl Old Ones in 91st place.

It doesn't matter how good you are, there's always that one game which you lost because you rolled double skulls, or won when your opponent rolled snake eyes in your end zone. Tiebreakers are still involved of course, but there really isn't all that much difference teams in the middle. A prediction which puts a team in that area would still be a pretty good prediction, even if the final position was off by 40 places.

(edited after being reminded that team ranking gives one point per win. I stand by my point though)

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Re: Lucca World Cup Round 1 Preview

Post by rolo »

So, assuming corrections have now gone through, here are the new Team rankings, Post-world cup!

Code: Select all

Team, Rating
Team Waterbowl, 1459.67
Masters of Tilea, 1435.77
Latino Lovers, 1267.63
Joe le taxi, 1254.09
Pilous, 1250.5
Socks' 2, 1226.41
American Football Conference, 1224.92
Geordie Juggernaut., 1212.69
Team Hellhound, 1211.37
Azian's Champions, 1205.62
Lutece Noobz, 1197.11
Spartak Avalanche, 1188.72
The Holy Six, 1184.86
Los ayudantes de Santa Claws, 1179.62
Turone Bashlords, 1156.1
Tana dei Bidoni, 1148.62
Predatori Firenze, 1124.96
Massacreurs Turons, 1122.15
Swedish Blood Bowl Alliance, 1119.24
The Linemen, 1116.75
Azes Tech, 1115.83
Team NRW, 1114.54
TBBL, 1109.4
Legio II Italica, 1100.3
Team CBBA, 1099.52
Mas Galactikos, 1096.24
Unqualified, 1092.7
Jodidos Fumbleros, 1090.8
Luccini, 1088.62
Wild Team Chimera, 1086.66
Blockparty, 1082.46
SPIKE! Crusaders, 1075.49
Evolution, 1068.52
LSR Pontebragas, 1067.23
GOLEADORES DA ESTRADINHA, 1062.39
ECBBL Blackshirts, 1055.28
Blocktors Without Borders, 1049.17
Team Wales, 1048.44
Swiss Ouroboros, 1047.02
Norway, 1045.36
CMMF, 1041.72
Six Pistols, 1036.81
Mongrel Horde, 1036.41
Catenaccio Forever, 1035.98
Team Grand Est, 1032.26
Team Bubble, 1031.08
SantaKO Total Team, 1029.71
Parabellum Joker, 1029.52
Elder Skelter, 1021.86
Team Rodents, 1016.89
Olympique Pilous, 1015.65
A - Team, 1013.56
Blueyard Carnage Crew, 1012.27
Team Baguette, 1010.7
Da Bolkon Trolls, 1004.66
Les Experts Lutèce, 1000.78
AINPACTE, 995.47
KILL BBIL, 993.81
Kick'Azes, 992.9
Team Canada, 991.39
Total Reroll, 983.58
Colonials, 982.68
Les Déchus, 982.14
BRIGANTI, 980.24
2nd Edition, 980.04
No Lucca Tall, 977.16
DARTH FUMBBLERS, 976.29
Les Pilounours, 974.47
Kurpfalz Crew, 973.78
Stockbowl Old Ones, 969.48
Lion Rampant, 968.96
Legio V Urbana, 968.64
Team ANZAC, 966.05
LSR Mariconettis, 965.65
Bilbali Blood Bowl In Darkness, 961.82
Los Favoritos, 961.02
Hòkulo Skool, 956.42
L'Altra Parte A, 954.27
Minotarri, 952.77
Half ´n´ Half, 952.19
Hampshire Superhogs, 950.4
Team TRAUMA, 946.46
The Arverngers, 944.64
Villaverde Alto, 944.15
Saltire, 944.08
Raffazzonato Drunk Team, 940.01
I Mazzuolatori Apuani, 939.64
Tassi Del Miele, 938.3
Budapest Ravens, 936.53
Polenta e Cannonau, 936.01
Bärfurt, 935.88
Blodge This!, 932.42
Biroldo Royal, 930.79
Austria - Mulikuh not Kangaroo, 925.43
Spartakulés, 924.34
Carini & Coccolosi, 924.2
Old Mumblers Company, 923.29
Globetrotters, 920.07
UCL, 916.23
Team Wombat, 911.36
BUBBA UK, 908.88
Black Thunder BBF, 906.72
F.B.B.F. - Fulginium Blood Bowl Federation, 905.45
Team BN Cabalvision, 903.09
Marenostrum Team, 901.49
Stars & Spite, 900.6
Spanish Bastards, 900.26
Titty Boys Parma, 899.13
NTeam North Sea, 898.76
Si Vis Vinci Parabellum, 897.37
Big Guys, 897.22
Texani, 896.63
Hell-O-Wien, 893.37
Zero Class, 889.42
Mediolanum Warlords, 882.28
BB4Fun, 881.76
Ekipo Averno Blood-Bowl, 877.31
Les Lemovices, 869.75
Socks' 1, 869.16
Vesunna, 862
Bababoys, 861.87
Team Exiles, 861.13
Malpas Goats of Arioch, 853.66
VICTIMS, 853.32
The Dirty (Half) Dozen, 849.76
NEUSTRIA, 849.23
Euskal Turnover, 844.72
Villaverde Bajo, 842.88
Luccini Old Style, 841.22
DopoLavoroPredatori, 839.89
Predatori Indomiti, 838.02
Papies Rhône Alpins, 837.71
Northwestern Barbarians, 836.09
BUBBLE-2, 834.09
Gavilan Pollero, 831.28
Fun factor Zento, 821.9
Desperados, 812.21
grand est team Z, 807.7
I Cavalieri dell'Altoforno, 805.58
Team SlowPlay, 804.02
Guardiani del Blood Bowl, 796.12
Danish Dynamite, 794.57
Brigata Muratella, 794.52
Team Z - L'Altraparte, 788.72
Luridi Ludici, 785.2
Hungarian Blooderhood, 777.16
Jackals Blood Bowl Team, 772.23
Hakkaa Päälle!, 768.61
Grand Est Maxi Best Of, 752.94
Team Chaos, 726.4
Beppe's Barbarians, 693.99
Discepoli del Signore della Notte, 677.77
The biggest gainers were "Azes Tech", who gained 156.69 points of rating to go from 959.14 to 1115.83, which is pretty amazing. The next biggest change was "The Linemen", who gained 100.3 points, going from 1016.45 to 1116.75.

I have attached a .csv file with pre, post, and delta ratings for anyone who's interested.

Q: How did you account for no-shows and replacement players?
A: I didn't. My script essentially goes through the list of players on each team, looks up their rating, and adds it up. If you didn't show up, your rating didn't change (although presumably your teammates made fun of you all weekend).

Q: ELO ratings like this are supposed to be zero-sum, why don't the two columns add up to the same total?
A: See above. If a game was played with the replacement player, that game affects the replacement's rating. But I only look up the ratings for the original team members, before and after.

Q: "Masters of Tilea" won, why aren't they ranked number one? And why did other teams improve more than they did?
A: That's just how ELO works. You gain rating when you win, based on the rating difference between you and your opponent. Beat someone ranked much higher than you, gain a lot. Beat someone ranked lower than you, you gain only a little. When you're already ranked really high, it's difficult to get higher because you get so little for each win, and lose a lot for every loss or even a tie.

Q: You are an idiot, my team should be ranked higher because (subjective reason)!
A: This isn't me, all I'm doing is addition. And really, I'm not even doing that, I'm just telling my computer to add for me. ELO ranking is deterministic. Don't blame me, blame your dice ;)

Q: What happened to "Ambush3"? His absence left Waterbowl, the pre-tournament favorites, playing with a mercenary all tournament!
A: No idea, but I bet that's a story and a half if anyone knows!
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zulu
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Re: Lucca World Cup Round 1 Preview

Post by zulu »

rolo wrote:I think a scatter chart based on final position might be misleading, just because the middle 60% or so is just so tight.

[

Right in the middle, in 76th place out of 152, is the ironically named team Half n Half.

One win more puts them at 30.5 points, the same as Team Bubble in 24th place.

One win less puts them at 24.5 points, the same as Luccini Old Style in 120th place.
Is this correct. In the team competition a win was only 1 point, so to move up to 24th place they would need 3 wins more.

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rolo
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Re: Lucca World Cup Round 1 Preview

Post by rolo »

zulu wrote:Is this correct. In the team competition a win was only 1 point, so to move up to 24th place they would need 3 wins more.
Well crap. You are correct. I'll update my graphic.

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