Talk Fantasy Football

necrosis wrote:I believe Galak almost goes as far as saying it was a mistake in the most recent 3 die block.

It sounds like it was the only choice that everyone could put up with, i.e. the fifth or sixth 'best' idea, and the least controversial. Which never makes good rules.

It's really not that bad. Check this out. I'm just assuming for the sake of brevity that two injuries means automatic retirement.

Casualty against a TG
Reserves: 1/2
Badly Hurt: 1/8
Miss: 1/9 (includes -AG)
-AV, -MA or Niggle: 1/12 (1/36 each)
Dead or retired: 13/72

If you take away the Regen and Decay, you get:
Badly Hurt: 1/2 (+400%)
Miss: 3/16 (includes -AG) (+69%)
-AV, -MA or Niggle: 1/8 (1/24 each) (+50%)
Dead or retired: 3/16 (+4%)

So without considering an Apothecary, Regen+Decay is better-than-nothing across the board, and significantly better than nothing when resisting non-fatal/retiring injuries, including lost stats.

What about the Apoth? Let's assume you have one and you save it for statlosses and deaths. For the moment, let's assume you've always got one for your AV9 player, though given that we're only talking about four guys on an 8-positional roster that's not at all safe.

1/8 Apo used on statloss generates 1/16 reserves, plus 3/128 MNG/-AG, plus the balance of 5/128 statloss. 3/16 (48/256) Apo used on death/-ST generates 3/32 reserves, plus 9/256 MNG/-AG, plus 3/128 statloss, plus 9/256 deaths.

So...
Reserves: 1/16+3/32 = 5/32.
Badly Hurt: 1/2.
MNG: 3/16+3/128+9/256 = 63/256.
Statloss: 5/128+3/128 = 1/16.
Death: 9/256.

Keep in mind that if we're pretending you have an Apothecary in this hypothetical non-Regen, non-Decay Khemri team, we're also pretending that you probably can't save it for the AV9 guy, when there are AV8 guys worth nearly as much, AV7 guys who tend to hog SPP, and AV7 guys who might become Apoth-able on a double or +stat. And then there are the games where two such players get hurt. If you're only 50% likely to use it on the AV9 guy, then the math comes out:
Reserves: 5/64.
Badly Hurt: 1/2.
MNG: 111/512.
Statloss: 3/32.
Death: 33/256.

3/32 is more than 1/12 (9.375% vs 8.333%), so if you're 50% likely to have an Apoth to use on a statloss, your AV9 guy is still more vulnerable to statloss than a Tomb Guardian, albeit not by much. 13/72 (18.0%) is more than 33/256 (12.9%), so the TG is about 40% more likely to die than the AV9 guy on our hypothetical Apothable non-regen Khemri team.

I think you have too much time on your hands, what is the point in working out all these odds and then adding a subjective 50% at the end of it all.

Decay is unnecessary on TGs

You don't have to take it as 50%. If you know what 100%, 50% and 0% are, you can plug in your own variables on the fly based on your experience. I can't tell you the statistical odds of having an Apothecary on hand, but I can tell you that sometimes you have one and sometimes you don't.

I don't have a lot of time on my hands, just an OCD personality and a knack for math on the fly. Don't give me grief for it; that's what my boss does for a living.

One would imagine it is a slow progressing team and therefore you'll have the chance to induce crazy Igor, even with cash from inverse inducement opportunities

Tomb gardian :

4 5 1 8 Regen, Thick skull with strong skills

Interesting to see this thread come back again, but then appropriate i guess seeing as it is for Khemri.

Surely the other main issue with Guardians is that they have little chance of gaining any spp's. With MA4 and AG1 then a completion or TD is hugely unlikely.

Whilst no block or MB means their chances of getting a cas are pretty low. About 2.5% vs an av8 player with block on a 2D block if my calculations are correct.

In my 2+ seasons of Khemri TT league play and numerous games on FUMBBL, both played and spectated, the main problem with the Khemri is the Guardian's Decay. Partially, because as many of you have stated, it is just a harsh junkshot to coaches already playing a slow, clumsy, expensive (except for Skels) team. But also, coaches seem to think nerfing them is fine because the team gets 4 ST5 maulers. But it is incredibly easy for standard, 3ST Linemen (especially with Block) to bring them down 1-on-1! Think about that - the very core of the team is the 4 ST5 players yet, in game after game, I've seen them not only neutralized but dropped, injured, sometimes killed by 2-die uphill blocks from standard 3ST Linemen! At the very least, they get dragged down a lot, allowing the game to run past them and lessening even further their chances of SPPs.

The team has the lowest AG in the game, plenty of 7AV, only 2 starting Block, poor speed, wasted starting skills (Pass? Really?), brutally slow development and overly expensive positionals. Khemri do not need Decay on the players who make up the very core of the team because it is TOO EASY TO GET TO. And again, I don't even mean the obvious Claw, I mean 3ST Lineman, even without Block, throwing 2-dice uphill and removing these supposed 5ST monsters from the play, the drive or even the game.

The team does not need better AG, don't give the Guardians MiB or G access. Just remove Decay from the Guardians and the team would be fine.

Ullis wrote:The new Khemri team is crap. Seriously, just play them for a while before suggesting any changes.

Corrected for you.

The old Khemri were fine, but...

If we have to evolve from what we have.

Lose Decay, gain BT and raise price by 10K.
Throwers and Blitzers gain TS for no cost.
Throwers lose Pass and gain Sure Hands or NOS.

Personally, I'd also add a "Runner" position (7/3/2/7 Regen, NOS, GA, but many don't like the idea of "fast" skellies).

Meh, I'm only keen on one of Darkson's changes: Thro-Ras and Blitz-Ras should have Thick Skull. Taking Decay off TGs is enough: BT is overkill. In fact, I'd say bump them to 110k in that case.

Akalabeth wrote:To me anything above ST 3 is good. And of course ST 5 is better than ST4, but frankly being ST 5 instead of ST 4 isn't a big a deal as being ST 4 instead of ST 3 or ST 2 instead of ST 3. Even one more will get you that extra dice, an extra strength is just insurance.

You're only looking at this from the hitting side of things, how about when you're getting hit? There's a big difference lining up a shot at a ST4 piece vs a ST5 piece and when you're facing 4 of them it's tough. I basically spend all my time trying to avoid the TGs in my league because they are so difficult to stand up to.

Akalabeth wrote:TGs don't have negative traits but they don't get things like mighty blow either which are default big guy skills. Not having G access when most every other up-strengthed positional on other teams do get G access kinda blows too. Not to mention the entire rest of the team has crap armour, crap speed, and crap agility.

They don't have MB until their first skill you mean? Swapping increased movement for MB is a pain in the short term but long term makes the team better.

You could make them ST4 and give them G access but the team just lost a lot of it's flavour in that act, 4xST5 players is a great unit that means the rest of the team has to be correspondingly worse. We've a player in our table top league doing perfectly well with the Khemri, they seem well balanced if a little cheap (his TV doesn't seem to bloat as much as others).