"Never take +AV," they said. "+MA is always better," they said. And then they said, "the higher your AV, the less likely you are to use it."
But they also said, "even a stool can win with Orcs." And "High Elves are the best elves" is starting to gain traction in resurrection environments, especially in low and high TV formats.
So, what gives? Here's my thinking:
1) Stipulations: AV 5 or less is not worth considering (fight me, go ahead), and AV11 or more is not legal. So we're just considering AV6-10. Also, foul assists just modify AV, so let's leave them alone for now (net AV5 or less is a "gangfoul" for this purpose).
2) For AV6 through AV10, here is the math for unmodified AV/injury rolls.
AV6: 21/36 to break AV.
AV7: 15/36 to break AV. -6 permutations, representing about a 28.7% reduction in breaks.
AV8: 10/36 to break AV. -5 perms, -33.3% breaks.
AV9: 6/36 to break AV. -4 perms, -40% breaks.
AV10: 3/36 to break AV. -3 perms, -50% breaks.
3) Mighty Blow and Dirty Player change the math on breaks, to alter the Cas math, but does not alter the meaning of a Cas in terms of player longevity.
AV6: 26/36 to break AV, resulting in 240/1296 Cas.
AV7: 21/36 to break AV, 186 Cas. -54 Cas, -22.5% Cas.
AV8: 15/36 to break AV, 130 Cas. -56 Cas, -30.1% Cas.
AV9: 10/36 to break AV, 84 Cas. -46 Cas, -35.4% Cas.
AV10: 6/36 to break AV, 48 Cas. -36 Cas, -42.9% Cas.
So, while more AV means fewer chances for +1 AV to be relevant, more AV also means a higher proportion of chances for +1 AV to be relevant, considering the number of AV-break permutations.
This doesn't mean you should run out and take +AV on all your AV9 players: Claw is still a thing and all. But it does mean that you should consider +AV as a racial characteristic over +MA on players who shouldn't be considering +MA. No?
Also, doesn't this mean that we should seriously not be considering low-TV progression optimization in the same basket with new teams in perpetual progression environments? Like, AV9 in a 7-game season is not the same thing at all as AV9 in the first 7 games of a Ranked/Box/CCL team, and is not even vaguely similar to AV9 in a 5-round progression tourney.
Implications? Discuss.
Marginal AV from 6-10: a new look
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mattgslater
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Marginal AV from 6-10: a new look
Reason: ''
What is Nuffle's view? Through a window, two-by-three. He peers through snake eyes.
What is Nuffle's lawn? Inches, squares, and tackle zones: Reddened blades of grass.
What is Nuffle's tree? Risk its trunk, space the branches. Touchdowns are its fruit.
What is Nuffle's lawn? Inches, squares, and tackle zones: Reddened blades of grass.
What is Nuffle's tree? Risk its trunk, space the branches. Touchdowns are its fruit.
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Aliboon
- Super Star
- Posts: 870
- Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2006 6:55 pm
Re: Marginal AV from 6-10: a new look
I think the % decrease in AV breaks by increasing AV is a bit of a red herring, yeah going from AV 9 to 10 halves the breaks, but they are rare anyway so from 1/6 times to 1/12, in a match that might possibly be one extra AV break.
Having said that, I can't say I'd never take the +AV, but just wouldn't do it very often.
Who would get it? AV 8 big guys on a 6+4 and punchbags with few other options - zombies, Norse/human/skaven linos, maybe a developed elf LOS lino (if they live that long). Who else? Maybe orc linos?
I don't think I'd ever give up a double 5 for AV, but would do for MA.
As you write, claw is a consideration and the more developed your team is, the more likely you are to face it, so an early +AV is likely to be better than a later one.
I've given it to my HMP bombardier! I also think my guard SF troll on the same team might be AV10, but whether that was a good choice or not I don't know.
The problem is, you don't often remember when +AV saves you and you'll never know when it saves a CAS or RIP because the INJ roll isn't made. You do remember failing GFIs and breaking your neck though.
Having said that, I can't say I'd never take the +AV, but just wouldn't do it very often.
Who would get it? AV 8 big guys on a 6+4 and punchbags with few other options - zombies, Norse/human/skaven linos, maybe a developed elf LOS lino (if they live that long). Who else? Maybe orc linos?
I don't think I'd ever give up a double 5 for AV, but would do for MA.
As you write, claw is a consideration and the more developed your team is, the more likely you are to face it, so an early +AV is likely to be better than a later one.
I've given it to my HMP bombardier! I also think my guard SF troll on the same team might be AV10, but whether that was a good choice or not I don't know.
The problem is, you don't often remember when +AV saves you and you'll never know when it saves a CAS or RIP because the INJ roll isn't made. You do remember failing GFIs and breaking your neck though.
Reason: ''
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mattgslater
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Re: Marginal AV from 6-10: a new look
Well, what I'm saying is that this is not a red herring. And when considering a team, per match stats are only really valuable if you look at a long string of matches. It's hard, because concepts like "team longevity" and "skill memory" are tied up with things like length of season, perpetual vs limited formats, apothecary use, coaching skill/style, etc.
Like, Dark Elves vs Wood Elves is a decision of style, primarily: DE are MA6/7, AV8, and have numerous solid Blitzers, while WE are MA7/8, AV7, and have a couple Wardancers. Wood Elves are "open" and Dark Elves are "closed" and that's that.
High Elves are not like either: the optimal starting High Elf build these days has an extra re-roll, Dark Elf speed/armor with just a couple Blitzers, and one "Wardancer-in-training." That third re-roll is very potent, and takes a massive burden off the team's early development. At high levels, they've got six Blitzers.
Like, Dark Elves vs Wood Elves is a decision of style, primarily: DE are MA6/7, AV8, and have numerous solid Blitzers, while WE are MA7/8, AV7, and have a couple Wardancers. Wood Elves are "open" and Dark Elves are "closed" and that's that.
High Elves are not like either: the optimal starting High Elf build these days has an extra re-roll, Dark Elf speed/armor with just a couple Blitzers, and one "Wardancer-in-training." That third re-roll is very potent, and takes a massive burden off the team's early development. At high levels, they've got six Blitzers.
Reason: ''
What is Nuffle's view? Through a window, two-by-three. He peers through snake eyes.
What is Nuffle's lawn? Inches, squares, and tackle zones: Reddened blades of grass.
What is Nuffle's tree? Risk its trunk, space the branches. Touchdowns are its fruit.
What is Nuffle's lawn? Inches, squares, and tackle zones: Reddened blades of grass.
What is Nuffle's tree? Risk its trunk, space the branches. Touchdowns are its fruit.
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mattgslater
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Re: Marginal AV from 6-10: a new look
This is kinda hard to look at, I get it. It has higher-order implications.
Like, again with High Elves, but this time let's compare them to Elven Union in a long format. This could be a recurring seasonal league, either with liberal ( or no) re-buy mechanics, or with long seasons, or it could be a CCL or FUMBBL Ranked or Box team made for perpetual play or tournaments. Whatever. We can look at a shorter format too, in another post.
1M with High Elves buys you 2 Blitzers, 1 Catcher, 8 Linemen, 3 Re-Rolls. There is a popular 2 RR build with a Thrower and two Catchers, but let's be honest: in a
1M with Elven Union can get you the same with an Apothecary, or you can trade the Apoth for an extra Catcher and Thrower in place of two Linemen. Most folks do the latter, with 3 Re-Rolls and no Apothecary to start.
Now, the Elven Union have access to an extra Catcher, and their Blitzers have Side Step. Plus they have Pass and P access on one player. But their Linemen (and Thrower) are AV7. Side Step on the Blitzers is great, and the Blitzers are AV8, but at 110k they're very much worth targeting, and Side Step and AV8 are really only good if you expose them. The Linemen are 10k cheaper, which is significant, but anyone who's played with Human Linos and with Hobgoblins knows how that -10k for -1 AV bit goes, and it's even worse with AG4 (and +20k).
The High Elves have kind of a predictable game early on, as they're basically a brawl squad, only with spam AG4, one speedster, and two starting Block, and no bench or fat. It's kind of an odd game at first, as you're forced to be almost a bash outfit, but the added short-range mobility is just awesome, and you pick up SPP super-duper fast. The first game is kind of risky (honestly, just don't draw Undead and hope for average luck, you'll be fine), but once you get your Apothecary, you can just hire a couple Catchers as needed.
Over time, that Apothecary, man, it really changes things. The Elven Union, they have to preserve a few key players, while High Elves often develop quite a lot of those. Even at low TV, you'll let a 60k PE Lineman go on turn 4, even if he's got a skill, but in your first several games with High Elves, you'd probably rather play three quarters without an Apothecary. Later on, when you see more Mighty Blow and Tackle, and your best players get more differentiation, the math changes, but even then, High Elves are a lot more likely to have developed a good defensive skill profile.
After all, let's look at the normal (GA) skills that you see on elf linemen: Block/Wrestle, Dodge, Side Step, Fend, Tackle, Diving Tackle, and possibly Jump Up, Frenzy, Dauntless, or Strip Ball. But I'm counting four skills (treating Block/Wrestle as one) before I hit the first skill that doesn't minimize damage taken (Tackle).
With Elven Union in a perpetual format, you might invest in Side Step over Wrestle, just on the grounds that the player-saving value is not amazing at low TV (7/27 on 2d from players with Block, and 1/108 to 3/23 from players without; bigs @ 3d are 35/1296 to both-down, after negatrait), and you probably wouldn't consider Block unless you already had Guard. So that's a 26% save at best, and at 60k, you're paying a 33% increase in player cost. You might do it anyway, because having a few extra Wrestlers is good (Wrestle makes holes, that's fun), but you're not excited about skilling your Linos, and you don't expect it to keep them alive.
But with High Elves, you have different math: it's only a 28.7% cost increase to put a skill on a player, and the player takes 40% fewer Casualties per block sustained. Your Linos live a lot longer, and you are a lot more tempted to build on them. Block is a bona fide option: it earns SPP, and keeps you on your feet. There are environments out there where it is very easy to build multiple skills on half-a-dozen Linemen, because each skill added makes the last one more valuable. Block caps the enemy off at 5/9 to knock you down with a hit, while Dodge makes it so only the Tackle players have better than 11/36. Take enough Linemen, spread the SPP liberally enough, and if everybody is the same age, you can basically dominate matches 10-20 or so. After that point, the MB/Tackle starts getting thrown about and you have to start differentiating yourself, but it's a fun ride.
I haven't played seasons with either, but with a 10-12 game run, you would probably find High Elves a lot less demanding to maintain over time, but the first 2-3 seasons wouldn't show this too much. Elven Union tend to focus heavily on the positionals, while High Elves are more likely to develop a couple star linos to go with the position players. This means little early on, but "Wants to Retire" may come calling for the too-successful Pro Elf team, while a High Elf team is likely to find new stars over the span of each new season.
Yes? No?
I wanna talk about Orcs and Humans, but I really don't wanna just be talking to myself. I also have ideas about Skaven and inducement value, and the "elastic" power some teams seem to have. But again... not sure.
Like, again with High Elves, but this time let's compare them to Elven Union in a long format. This could be a recurring seasonal league, either with liberal ( or no) re-buy mechanics, or with long seasons, or it could be a CCL or FUMBBL Ranked or Box team made for perpetual play or tournaments. Whatever. We can look at a shorter format too, in another post.
1M with High Elves buys you 2 Blitzers, 1 Catcher, 8 Linemen, 3 Re-Rolls. There is a popular 2 RR build with a Thrower and two Catchers, but let's be honest: in a
1M with Elven Union can get you the same with an Apothecary, or you can trade the Apoth for an extra Catcher and Thrower in place of two Linemen. Most folks do the latter, with 3 Re-Rolls and no Apothecary to start.
Now, the Elven Union have access to an extra Catcher, and their Blitzers have Side Step. Plus they have Pass and P access on one player. But their Linemen (and Thrower) are AV7. Side Step on the Blitzers is great, and the Blitzers are AV8, but at 110k they're very much worth targeting, and Side Step and AV8 are really only good if you expose them. The Linemen are 10k cheaper, which is significant, but anyone who's played with Human Linos and with Hobgoblins knows how that -10k for -1 AV bit goes, and it's even worse with AG4 (and +20k).
The High Elves have kind of a predictable game early on, as they're basically a brawl squad, only with spam AG4, one speedster, and two starting Block, and no bench or fat. It's kind of an odd game at first, as you're forced to be almost a bash outfit, but the added short-range mobility is just awesome, and you pick up SPP super-duper fast. The first game is kind of risky (honestly, just don't draw Undead and hope for average luck, you'll be fine), but once you get your Apothecary, you can just hire a couple Catchers as needed.
Over time, that Apothecary, man, it really changes things. The Elven Union, they have to preserve a few key players, while High Elves often develop quite a lot of those. Even at low TV, you'll let a 60k PE Lineman go on turn 4, even if he's got a skill, but in your first several games with High Elves, you'd probably rather play three quarters without an Apothecary. Later on, when you see more Mighty Blow and Tackle, and your best players get more differentiation, the math changes, but even then, High Elves are a lot more likely to have developed a good defensive skill profile.
After all, let's look at the normal (GA) skills that you see on elf linemen: Block/Wrestle, Dodge, Side Step, Fend, Tackle, Diving Tackle, and possibly Jump Up, Frenzy, Dauntless, or Strip Ball. But I'm counting four skills (treating Block/Wrestle as one) before I hit the first skill that doesn't minimize damage taken (Tackle).
With Elven Union in a perpetual format, you might invest in Side Step over Wrestle, just on the grounds that the player-saving value is not amazing at low TV (7/27 on 2d from players with Block, and 1/108 to 3/23 from players without; bigs @ 3d are 35/1296 to both-down, after negatrait), and you probably wouldn't consider Block unless you already had Guard. So that's a 26% save at best, and at 60k, you're paying a 33% increase in player cost. You might do it anyway, because having a few extra Wrestlers is good (Wrestle makes holes, that's fun), but you're not excited about skilling your Linos, and you don't expect it to keep them alive.
But with High Elves, you have different math: it's only a 28.7% cost increase to put a skill on a player, and the player takes 40% fewer Casualties per block sustained. Your Linos live a lot longer, and you are a lot more tempted to build on them. Block is a bona fide option: it earns SPP, and keeps you on your feet. There are environments out there where it is very easy to build multiple skills on half-a-dozen Linemen, because each skill added makes the last one more valuable. Block caps the enemy off at 5/9 to knock you down with a hit, while Dodge makes it so only the Tackle players have better than 11/36. Take enough Linemen, spread the SPP liberally enough, and if everybody is the same age, you can basically dominate matches 10-20 or so. After that point, the MB/Tackle starts getting thrown about and you have to start differentiating yourself, but it's a fun ride.
I haven't played seasons with either, but with a 10-12 game run, you would probably find High Elves a lot less demanding to maintain over time, but the first 2-3 seasons wouldn't show this too much. Elven Union tend to focus heavily on the positionals, while High Elves are more likely to develop a couple star linos to go with the position players. This means little early on, but "Wants to Retire" may come calling for the too-successful Pro Elf team, while a High Elf team is likely to find new stars over the span of each new season.
Yes? No?
I wanna talk about Orcs and Humans, but I really don't wanna just be talking to myself. I also have ideas about Skaven and inducement value, and the "elastic" power some teams seem to have. But again... not sure.
Reason: ''
What is Nuffle's view? Through a window, two-by-three. He peers through snake eyes.
What is Nuffle's lawn? Inches, squares, and tackle zones: Reddened blades of grass.
What is Nuffle's tree? Risk its trunk, space the branches. Touchdowns are its fruit.
What is Nuffle's lawn? Inches, squares, and tackle zones: Reddened blades of grass.
What is Nuffle's tree? Risk its trunk, space the branches. Touchdowns are its fruit.
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El_Jairo
- Veteran
- Posts: 259
- Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2005 2:31 am
Re: Marginal AV from 6-10: a new look
I do like a good discussion like this. I don't mind that you will be doing a lot of the talking.
I totally get what you are saying about the HE vs the Pro Elves. The lack of AV means that lino's aren't getting more than two skills. Yet because they have bad armor, they effectiveness improves greatly from defensive skills.
My personal take on this is that you are right about people remembering those 'spike' moments: when you just barely managed to get in ragen of ... (fill in the blank by: TD, Sack and what not). Yet you do not realize when your player has dodged an injury by being saved by his armor.
In my view Wardancers are that good that they are worth protecting. Sure you can hide them from being block, yet they will fail a dodge, leap or GFI and than your AV7 is going to bite you. Bumping it's armor to 8 is guaranteeing him to stay active in the game for 33.3% more of the time.
I'm by no means an master Wood Elf coach, but I do know that everybody and their mother will try their utmost best to try to remove those dancers. So by keeping them active, they are going to cause that much more annoyance.
For comparison: what is the actual impact of MA 9 over MA 8? If you look at it percentage wise: 12,5%, which isn't that impressive. I would argue that once you have MA8 and access to leap and dodge (which allows for cutting corners and more) you have more than fair accessibility to the pitch. It comes down to proper positioning.
I do get that MA increase makes certain plays possible, yet a player off the pitch isn't to going to make any plays either.
So I would like to see some stats on this. But since almost all good coaches prefer MA over AV, this would imply that the stats are influenced more by the skill of the coaches over the difference of choosing AV over MA.
I totally get what you are saying about the HE vs the Pro Elves. The lack of AV means that lino's aren't getting more than two skills. Yet because they have bad armor, they effectiveness improves greatly from defensive skills.
My personal take on this is that you are right about people remembering those 'spike' moments: when you just barely managed to get in ragen of ... (fill in the blank by: TD, Sack and what not). Yet you do not realize when your player has dodged an injury by being saved by his armor.
In my view Wardancers are that good that they are worth protecting. Sure you can hide them from being block, yet they will fail a dodge, leap or GFI and than your AV7 is going to bite you. Bumping it's armor to 8 is guaranteeing him to stay active in the game for 33.3% more of the time.
I'm by no means an master Wood Elf coach, but I do know that everybody and their mother will try their utmost best to try to remove those dancers. So by keeping them active, they are going to cause that much more annoyance.
For comparison: what is the actual impact of MA 9 over MA 8? If you look at it percentage wise: 12,5%, which isn't that impressive. I would argue that once you have MA8 and access to leap and dodge (which allows for cutting corners and more) you have more than fair accessibility to the pitch. It comes down to proper positioning.
I do get that MA increase makes certain plays possible, yet a player off the pitch isn't to going to make any plays either.
So I would like to see some stats on this. But since almost all good coaches prefer MA over AV, this would imply that the stats are influenced more by the skill of the coaches over the difference of choosing AV over MA.
Reason: ''
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mattgslater
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Re: Marginal AV from 6-10: a new look
I think the wisdom on MA is starting to mature. MA is no longer a popular selection on linemen, for instance, except on teams that lack faster players (Amazons, Chaos, Underworld Skaven Linemen). AV is not a popular selection for a lot of reasons: your star players usually have skills to take that help them immediately, and often are also faster than the others and thus more likely to take MA over AV, and your lesser players seldom make it to that third or fourth skill where AV feels like it pulls its weight.
I would definitely take +AV on a 3rd or 4th skill for a Lineman with G-only access on most teams (especially a Zombie or Skeleton), particularly if he didn't have anything better to do than man a vulnerable spot with Block and Fend, maybe Guard or something. Also, on an Underworld Goblin, I'd take AV any day: +1 AV is twice as good as Foul Appearance for stopping injury rolls, and it's not like those don't stack. Also, note that in TV-matching formats (FUMBBL Ranked/Box, BB2 CCL, stuff like that), +AV is weak on most players, and you're better off with a marginal skill, or cutting and replacing the player, if +MA is not good (except on Zombies).
So, yeah, I think the conditions for +MA outnumber those for +AV, when considered as an improvement, but in a more mature format, this is less true. Take Draft League Europe on FUMBBL: it's all-Human, and money is no object. 32-team league, NFL-style 16-game season. Every season, they have a 4-round draft (128 picks plus some comps), and +AV is considered much more valuable than +MA on non-Catchers (okay, it's about equal on Throwers). Linemen, Blitzers, and Ogres with +MA, well, that's nice, and coaches don't shy away from it, but a good skill profile and +AV, that's money.
I would definitely take +AV on a 3rd or 4th skill for a Lineman with G-only access on most teams (especially a Zombie or Skeleton), particularly if he didn't have anything better to do than man a vulnerable spot with Block and Fend, maybe Guard or something. Also, on an Underworld Goblin, I'd take AV any day: +1 AV is twice as good as Foul Appearance for stopping injury rolls, and it's not like those don't stack. Also, note that in TV-matching formats (FUMBBL Ranked/Box, BB2 CCL, stuff like that), +AV is weak on most players, and you're better off with a marginal skill, or cutting and replacing the player, if +MA is not good (except on Zombies).
So, yeah, I think the conditions for +MA outnumber those for +AV, when considered as an improvement, but in a more mature format, this is less true. Take Draft League Europe on FUMBBL: it's all-Human, and money is no object. 32-team league, NFL-style 16-game season. Every season, they have a 4-round draft (128 picks plus some comps), and +AV is considered much more valuable than +MA on non-Catchers (okay, it's about equal on Throwers). Linemen, Blitzers, and Ogres with +MA, well, that's nice, and coaches don't shy away from it, but a good skill profile and +AV, that's money.
Reason: ''
What is Nuffle's view? Through a window, two-by-three. He peers through snake eyes.
What is Nuffle's lawn? Inches, squares, and tackle zones: Reddened blades of grass.
What is Nuffle's tree? Risk its trunk, space the branches. Touchdowns are its fruit.
What is Nuffle's lawn? Inches, squares, and tackle zones: Reddened blades of grass.
What is Nuffle's tree? Risk its trunk, space the branches. Touchdowns are its fruit.
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harvestmouse
- Star Player
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Re: Marginal AV from 6-10: a new look
So the premise is to improve the appeal of taking +AV?
Personally what I do is I put +AV on a role of 9. It's not a double and makes the option much more viable; particularly on players that only have one access on regular roles.
Personally what I do is I put +AV on a role of 9. It's not a double and makes the option much more viable; particularly on players that only have one access on regular roles.
Reason: ''
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mattgslater
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Re: Marginal AV from 6-10: a new look
No, no, I'm saying: the net value of +1 AV increases with the base AV in a long-running format, but decreases with the base AV in a short format.
AV8 > AV7 by more than AV9 > AV8 on a block-by-block basis, but
AV9 > AV8 by more than AV8 > AV7 on a season-by-season basis.
I'm not talking about whether +AV competes as an improvement, or even about if or when you should take +AV. At least not directly.
But if we wanna go down that road, here goes:
* In a short format, +AV is seldom worth it. +MA is only good if strongly indicated. Skills are where it's at on 10.
* In a long format, +AV on a non-doubles 10 is very good on a player with only one category of skill access, and the higher their AV, the more valuable +1 is. I tend to take +AV on 3rd or 4th skills on linemen, and even as a 2nd skill on a big guy.
* If +MA is strongly indicated, it always takes precedence over +AV. (Hence, fast players tend to take +MA.)
AV8 > AV7 by more than AV9 > AV8 on a block-by-block basis, but
AV9 > AV8 by more than AV8 > AV7 on a season-by-season basis.
I'm not talking about whether +AV competes as an improvement, or even about if or when you should take +AV. At least not directly.
But if we wanna go down that road, here goes:
* In a short format, +AV is seldom worth it. +MA is only good if strongly indicated. Skills are where it's at on 10.
* In a long format, +AV on a non-doubles 10 is very good on a player with only one category of skill access, and the higher their AV, the more valuable +1 is. I tend to take +AV on 3rd or 4th skills on linemen, and even as a 2nd skill on a big guy.
* If +MA is strongly indicated, it always takes precedence over +AV. (Hence, fast players tend to take +MA.)
Reason: ''
What is Nuffle's view? Through a window, two-by-three. He peers through snake eyes.
What is Nuffle's lawn? Inches, squares, and tackle zones: Reddened blades of grass.
What is Nuffle's tree? Risk its trunk, space the branches. Touchdowns are its fruit.
What is Nuffle's lawn? Inches, squares, and tackle zones: Reddened blades of grass.
What is Nuffle's tree? Risk its trunk, space the branches. Touchdowns are its fruit.
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El_Jairo
- Veteran
- Posts: 259
- Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2005 2:31 am
Re: Marginal AV from 6-10: a new look
Disclaimer, my format isn't the best but I wanted some more explanation, to see if my reasoning concurs with what you have put on paper in this thread.mattgslater wrote:No, no, I'm saying: the net value of +1 AV increases with the base AV in a long-running format, but decreases with the base AV in a short format.
AV8 > AV7 by more than AV9 > AV8 on a block-by-block basis, but
AV9 > AV8 by more than AV8 > AV7 on a season-by-season basis.
I'm not talking about whether +AV competes as an improvement, or even about if or when you should take +AV. At least not directly.
But if we wanna go down that road, here goes:
* In a short format, +AV is seldom worth it. +MA is only good if strongly indicated. Skills are where it's at on 10.
* In a long format, +AV on a non-doubles 10 is very good on a player with only one category of skill access, and the higher their AV, the more valuable +1 is. I tend to take +AV on 3rd or 4th skills on linemen, and even as a 2nd skill on a big guy.
* If +MA is strongly indicated, it always takes precedence over +AV. (Hence, fast players tend to take +MA.)
I know that we can't have clear cut rules that will be generally true, yet I would like to check what could be general rules of thumb instead of the "always pick MA over AV".
1) Asses in which format you are operating. Or more precisely: is this player going to have a chance at further skill-ups or not?
You are very right about the early skill-ups: generally skills are better than MA or AV, unless MA is low in general or the positional already have enough good skills and can benefit from either MA or AV.
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IMHO The very skilled players like Wardancers who have only AV7 (less for Amazon or Norse as they lack MA in general on their roster) are better served by +AV. Sure it looks like always better to have MA 9 but with leap and and ST3 you don't need to develop this player as a one-turner. I would be more afraid of a Wardancer with higher AV as you know that you want to stomp his face each time his hits the deck. Even hitting the deck will become far less dangerous for the Wardancer.
I would pick AV on a Amazon blitzer with guard. She will be picked out a lot to have the first block aimed at her. Sure Stand-firm is a very annoying and effective choice, yet with AV8 she will be able to be longer effective during the drive.
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2) How many useful skills can be picked for the player? And what is the roll of the player.
Assuming that the player will have next skill-ups, which means soon enough and he wouldn't be killed before.
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Typically your lineman positions will have to eat a lot of blocks and will benefit more from AV than MA. MA Would be preferred on positions who are more likely to score TD: catchers and runner type of players. Sweepers also like MA because they want to be able to reach those catchers and sweepers more easily. Yet IMHO the AV7 positionals really shouldn't discard +AV so easily.
So a lineman with Block/Wrestle and Fend would prefer AV over another skill or MA.
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3) When is MA more important than AV?
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In my opinion when the team as a whole lacks MA 'reach': teams where the positionals have the same speed as the linemen: Amazons, Norse but also any team which has their top speed <= 6 MA really benefits from +MA. Because one half is 13 squares deep MA 7 can make it without any GFI's and MA 6 can't.
So players who start with MA 9 of course really want MA 10 because of the one-turn TD possibility with sprint. Which is for me literally a game breaker. As long as you need a push to get in range, your opponent can still set-up his defense to lower the chances for a OTT. If you 'only' need to make your 3 GFI's and dodges,....
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4) When is AV more important than MA?
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In general for lineman who already have their defensive skills: typically for lineman with only general skills this is wrestle or block.
But also positionals with only AV7 can benefit greatly from +AV when they have their key skills. I see it as an insurance policy on those crucial players, which come in very limited numbers.
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Reason: ''