All about Dark Elves

[Joemanji]

Exactly, All Witch Elves should get Side Step and Block by the 3rd advance (barring miraculous doubles and stat increases.) So the value of Juggernaut is lower.

I'm not saying it's a bad choice, but I don't think it's optimum.

Agreed. I'd value MB above Jugs any day, and possibly even Guard.

[s031720]

The thing is you hardly ever block with the WE anyways. You might think you do, but you dont. If you play by e-mail, open up you latest game and count your blocks vs blitzes. And if you do block often, you wont have your witch for long.

You will either blitz or stay out of harms way. You will not voluntarily put your WE in opponents TZs, and when they try to tie you up you will dodge out. Thus, blitzes is what the WE does. The claim that MB is better because its used more often is not valid to me.

Contrary, if you have a WE with MB kontra a WE with Juggernaut, you will find that Juggernaut will come in to play more often. The MB only comes into play when
1. You knock down and
2. Your inj. roll end up on the exact same AV as the opp. your hitting, or the KO/CAS limits -1

Your odds will go up some with the help of tackle.

The juggernaut comes into play when:
1. Opponent have either SF, Wrestle, Fend or
2. You roll "both down" on the dice.

That juggernaut is used more often in itself says little, its the effect of the skills that are important. But if you use your WE to dominate the widezones, you will find that:

A: Your running game will be much stronger
B: Your cage defense will be much stronger
C: The "numerical advantage" effect heralded by the MB-sayers, are atleast equaled by crowdpushes, but in my mind greater. Especially if you only count the KO/CASes where MB did play a roll, all other CASes you would have with juggernaut aswell and becomes irrelevant for the discussion.

These strategical advantages are hard to match by the MB.

This is how I see it. If I get a double on both my witches, I will go MB on the second.

Its a good thing that we are of diffrent opinions. That means that there are more than one way to play the DE competetively.

[s031720]

Edit: A more correct calculation wich compensates for the chance of making that inj. roll after a knock down, instead of it beeing automatic.


Just did a quick calculation, it migh not be perfectly accurate, but it serves to gain an overview:

The chance of MB coming into play when you Blitz with assist (2blocks*2d):

The chance of knock down vs defender skills:
Nothing 9/10
Wrestle/Block 7/10
Wrestle/Block+Dodge 6/10

AV break where MB helps:
Av 7: 6/36
AV 8: 5/36

KO/Cas on inj. roll:
10/36

AV break without MB:
AV 7: 14/36
AV 8: 9/36


Best case scenario, Blitz vs AV 7 with no relevant skills:

F = 0.9x(1 -(30/36*9/10)) = 22%
(Compensating for chance of getting inj. roll: 14/36 * 10/36 = 1/10)


More usual scenario, Blitz vs AV 8 with Block/Wrestle:

F = 0.7x(1-(31/36*13/14)) = 14%
(Compensating for chance of getting inj. roll: 9/36 * 10/36 = 1/14)


MB will help against unprotected AV 7 players 1 blitz in 5, and AV 8 Blockers 1 blitz in 7.

If you keep blitzing with assists every single turn of the game, MB will have come in use about 2 or 3 times a game, ranging from Stuns to CASes.

[s031720]

So ONE MB dont have a supergreat impact in a single game, several does.

But ONE Juggernaut have a supergreat impact on atleast my games. I still believe in having juggernaut on the first WE, no arguments so far have been very convincing to me and changed my mind.

MB ill take on my Blitzers if I already have enough Guard, and if truly lucky on my second WE.

[Jural]

If your Witch has block, Juggernaut is used on a 2 die block:

(I assume knockdown > push in all cases... this may not be valid if you are selling out for a crowd push)

a) 0% of the time when the opponent doesn't have block
b) 1/12 of the time if your opponent has block or wrestle.
c) 35/36 of the time if your opponent has Stand Firm...

If you go against a heavy stand firm team, or a team which puts stand firm in the wide, Juggernaut it of great utility. Otherwise, it would get used only about 2-3 times per match as well, even if you blitzed with the Witch every turn.

So unless you go up against a lot of Stand Firm, I just don't see Juggernaut as being a statistical improvement over Mighty Blow.

[s031720]

By your calculation, worst case scenario, Juggernaut would be as useful as MB. Thats a pretty decent reason for taking Juggernaut in my mind.

But:
Im always "selling out" for crowdpushes, thats the whole point.

So:
a: ) Not valid, I want the pushes over knock down.
b: ) Same as a.
c: ) Dang right you are! Add wrestle and fend to that aswell.

And you also disregard, that when applicable:

a: ) Just as MB, it will give you numerical (or tactical) advantage.

But in addition:
b: ) It helps during offence
c: ) It helps during defence
d: ) Often you dont even need to USE it for it to be helpful in case b and c.

[Jural]

If you sell out for crowd pushes, then you are prioritizing a push back over a knockdown.

In that case, Juggernaut is useful 7/36 of the time.

Assuming you have a chance to crowd push a non stand firm player 8 times a game, and you will have used Juggernaut 1.5 times a game Frankly, I am thrilled if I get 4 such chances!

So, either you get many more crowd push opportunities than I am used to, or you play against a lot of Stand Firm in the wide zone... Stand Firm which doesn't learn after the first time you counter his Stand Firm to push him out of bounds!

Statistically, I just don't buy it. Mighty Blow will be used more frequently than Juggernaut in most situations.

Now, you might be making a totally different point. Perhaps you are saying that you need the threat of a crowd push to allow your offense to go, and that it is too easy currently to counter this option with Fend or Stand Firm players? If that is your concern, I concur- Juggernaut is your thing... and heaven help you if you run into Side Steppers!

[Jural]

By your calculation, worst case scenario, Juggernaut would be as useful as MB. Thats a pretty decent reason for taking Juggernaut in my mind.

That's crazy talk, and I never said it.

Worst case your opponent has none to little wrestle/block and/or stand firm, and Juggernaut is used 1.3 times per game to take away a knockdown from your team when you blitz every turn with your Witch Elf!

Worst case for Mighty Blow is an all AV 9 team, in which case it is still useful 8.6%-11.7% of the time, an average of 1.4 - 1.9 times per game if you block every turn. (variation due to whether or not your opponent has block.) That's 1.4 to 1.9 extra armor breaks or injury upgrades...

[s031720]

Yes, I either get alot of crowdpushes or tactical advantage, since I try most of my games in the widezone. Thats just how it is. I understand that you wont get as much opportunity of crowdpushing since you go with MB and thus probably dont use the widezones as I do.

1= Pow
2 = Push
3= Push
4 = "doge"
5= both down
6= Skull

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Dice - - - 1 - - - 2 - - - 3 - - - 4 - - - 5 - - - 6
1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - x - - - -                                    
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2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
----------------------------------------------
4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - x - - - - 
----------------------------------------------
5 - - - - - x - - - - - - - - - - - x - - - x - - - x
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6 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - x - - - -     

thats 7/36 on the first block, adding the second it would be:
7/36 + (1-(4/6*4/6))*(7/36)

Thats 30 % or every third time. 5 times a game. And thats against opponents with no SF, Wrestle or Fend, in wich case the usefulness increase.

If opponent got dodge:
7/36 + (1-(3/6*3/6))*(7/36)= 34%


Sidestep is annoying as hell on offence. On defence not as much. Dont know why I need help from heaven though, Ill just change my game and play just like you guys do. Its not as if MB helps against SS very much.


Im not saying Juggernaut is the only way to play WE. Im saying that MB is not the only way to be playing WE.

Edit:
Missed some cases where JUG where useful in my initial calc. Fixed.
And of course against SF, its usefule against everything but double skulls.

[s031720]

Code: Select all

That's crazy talk, and I never said it. 

Sorry if I misinterpret you, that was not my intention.

You said that unless playing against SF Juggernaut would come into play as much as MB. Otherwise more.

Thats a worstcase scenario, it cant be worse. Anyways, details, details.


Edit:

Worst case your opponent has none to little wrestle/block and/or stand firm, and Juggernaut is used 1.3 times per game to take away a knockdown from your team when you blitz every turn with your Witch Elf!

"Taking away" knock downs arnt bad when you use it for tactical advantage wich in my case is most of the time. If I find it more advantageous to knock him down, I feel free to do so.

[s031720]

To sum up this discussion about MBvsJug on WE, one can say that:

The choice of Jug is a tactical one, it opens up more tactical possibilities.

The choice of MB is a powerplay one, it will make you a harder hitting team.


Both are useful choices for the WE.


Time to move on from this topic i think.

[mattgslater]

AFAIC, knockdowns are the best way to take advantage of an opponent, and Block is the skill for that, so you need Block with or without Juggy. Besides, she's AV7 with Frenzy and Jump Up, so she'll get hit a lot if she doesn't get Block. This diminishes Juggy a little bit. Not saying it's not as good one-on-one (in a tourney it's way better), but MB in a league makes a lot more sense than it otherwise would, especially as a first selection, as it makes it easier to get Block while Juggernaut doesn't.

The choice of MB is a powerplay one, it will make you a harder hitting team.

Actually, I disagree. I mean, it's true when you've got 4 of 'em, Orc-style. But when you just have one MB player, it's not the harder hitting that makes the big difference. It's that, with MB and Block, you can use this player as a lead blocker and let her get marked and stuff like that and be confident that she'll still improve without sucking SPP off of your linos and Blitzers.

[s031720]

You can still do that without MB though. And with juggernaut.

If you blitz with her say 10 times a game (thats a more realistic number) you would miss out on maybe 2 stun/KO/CAS, depending on AV and skills of defender.

Compared to a Juggernauting WE used the same way you would miss out on 0 - 1 spp per game. Ofcourse a juggernaut wouldnt be used the same way, so the relative SPP diffrence would be greater.


Block is a given on any discussion on this topic. The only possible situation where I wouldnt get Block first would be if I got a double on my first roll, wich would be Jug. After that Id go sidestep, leap, block. So block sooner or later anyways.

With a MB WE I would take MB, then block, sidestep, tackle and use her as you say.

As of:

AFAIC, knockdowns are the best way to take advantage of an opponent

you would actually get more knock downs if you choose to use Jug. instead of MB.

[stashman]

Okey! No more mathematics, just plain good english!

Uses of Juggernaut:
1. Everytime you blitz!
2. Everytime you blitz and wan't to move a Stand Firm guy
3. Everytime you blitz and wan't a Wrestler to go down if you have Block skill
4. Everytime you blitz and wan't a second Block if you have Frenzy
5. You don't have to use it, sometimes you don't wanna get a push back on your opponent
6. Good if you have Strip Ball skill


Uses of Mighty Blow:
1. Everytime you make a block and roll for armour/injury result on your opponent
2. Everytime your opponents gets "Skulls" and goes down and you roll for armour/injury result
3. Everytime you Blitz and gets "pow" and roll for armour/injury result
4. You dont have to use it, but it's always better to use it

So wich skill is the best? Overall I think Juggernaut do more for the team!

[s031720]

Hehe, lets hope that concludes the discussion.