High FF

Joshua Dyal · Post by **Joshua Dyal** » Tue Oct 15, 2002 1:23 pm

Conventional wisdom is that a high fan factor is essential for league games, but more and more I'm starting to wonder if that "truism" isn't really, well, true. In fact, it seems like a viable strategy to have a low fan factor and use the money on bulking up your starting line-up instead. Consider this scenario:

A standard league is full of teams that start with a high fan factor. If new teams are coming and going and playing established teams, chances are all those established teams also have a high fan factor -- higher even than a starting team would. So what happens to the enterprising new coach that starts a team with a lowly 2 or 3 or something like that in FF?

Besides that fact that he'll likely lose some kick-off results now and then, it doesn't seem like he'll really be worse off on money. Since winnings are determined by gate, and the gate is determined by both teams combined FF, a new team can still make pretty decent money just by playing against teams that have high FF and "leeching" money from their fans. If he plays against teams that also have a low FF, than neither one of them makes much money, and at least they maintain an equality. Under the new winnings charts, this seems even more to favor the new guy without much FF relative to the powerhouse team with lots of fans.

Am I missing something here? Why is the high FF so important?

Deathwing · Post by **Deathwing** » Tue Oct 15, 2002 1:35 pm

Kick-off results can be crucial.
I'm taking FF6 to Spiky (I'd like it higher), and there are no winnings.

Relborn · Post by **Relborn** » Tue Oct 15, 2002 1:43 pm

Sure, it's nicer to see those pitch-invasions on your opponents players than on your own.

Sputnik · Post by **Sputnik** » Tue Oct 15, 2002 1:46 pm

In my last game, my opponent gained two rr and some stupid fan threw a rock onto my players back, sending him right off the field into the injured box!!!

Horrible game that was ( and my horrible dice were close to see the garden in free fall right from first floor).

I think there are already quite a few threads about high ff and any advantages thereof. I go with a (sufficiently) high ff because you can't buy any points (but players) and you should at least have a chance to compete during kick-off results. And as you said, not everyone has such a high ff anyway.

Sputnik

Joshua Dyal · Post by **Joshua Dyal** » Tue Oct 15, 2002 2:27 pm

So I'm getting that high FF isn't really for the money (which I think has always been conventional wisdom) but for the kick-off results?

Seems to me that the chance of a bad kick-off result really fouling up your game is fairly slim, though. Besides Get the Ref! (which is more of a nice thing than a real gamebreaker), Throw a Rock (which isn't that likely to really hurt a player badly either) or Field Invasion (the only one I'd really be afraid of) FF doesn't affect anything on the kick-off table.

Sure, it'd be a risk to go into a game with a low FF against a high FF team given the possible results of the kick-off table. But, you can counter that risk somewhat by having more money to spend on your actual team, which should even that out. And, the risk seems fairly minimal anyway. Especially in league play, where you can usually recover from a bad result in a game or two.

Marcus · Post by **Marcus** » Tue Oct 15, 2002 3:00 pm

2 points:

You can't buy fan factor once a league has started, you can buy anything else.

If you're wondering how Fan Factor can influence the kickoff table results, check the writeup for the T5 tournament in House Rulez Magazine, issue #3

Joshua Dyal · Post by **Joshua Dyal** » Tue Oct 15, 2002 3:05 pm

I'm not wondering how FF can influence kick-off results -- that's very plain to see. Still, the Field Invasion result is the only one I'd be scared of in a league play, and the chances of rolling double sixes on the kick-off are pretty slim.

Marcus · Post by **Marcus** » Tue Oct 15, 2002 3:16 pm

Get the Ref is also a game-killer.

In a tournament you're playing 5 games. Even if you only see 2 kickoffs a game your chances of not ever getting either a Get The Ref or a Pitch Invasion for those 10 kickoffs is only 42% (someone check my maths? 33/36^10 is how I got that)

That number drops even lower the more touchdowns that get scored.

At T5 I scored 1 (crucial) Pitch Invasion and about 4 Get The Refs. I only fouled twice when I had the ref but the main point is that no-one fouled me.

In the last WPS Grand Tournament I was top of the table going into the second day when I lost the next 2 games to 2 consecutive Pitch Invasions.

Take a low Fan Factor and take your chances.

Haar · Post by **Haar** » Tue Oct 15, 2002 3:41 pm

I had a game tied 1-1 with one turn left in the game. My opponent kicked to me, pitch invasion. Game ends, kick off for OT, pitch invasion. I went from being at nearly full strength to having only 5 guys on the field. I still won, but that was more of a luck thing.

Double pitch invasions don't happen very much (one time in every 6^4 games). But there are enough FF events on the kickoff table to make FF a Big Deal, over and above the usual FF stuff (income).

With the new (and better, IMO) income charts, you need a pretty high FF after you get above 175 or so if you're going to make any money in a match.

McDeth · Post by **McDeth** » Tue Oct 15, 2002 3:56 pm

Joshua Dyal wrote:I'm not wondering how FF can influence kick-off results -- that's very plain to see. Still, the Field Invasion result is the only one I'd be scared of in a league play, and the chances of rolling double sixes on the kick-off are pretty slim.

You'll roll a double 6 once every thirty six times, in game turns that is about 1 every 6 games ( Assuming an average of 4 touchdowns per game ). is it reasonable that youn get a field invasion every six game.

I think not. That result is a lot more common than you think

Deathwing · Post by **Deathwing** » Tue Oct 15, 2002 4:10 pm

Last practice game for the Spiky (FF5 and 6) we had 2 pitch invasions, 1 thrown rock and 1 cheering fans. I know that's exceptional, but it happens.
Marcus has already referred to pitch invasions affecting his games in tournaments, I'll add Acerak's final game at Res ( the top game in the BB stadium) swung hugely in Acerak's favour as the result of yet another PI.
A lot of coaches have learned the importance of FF during tournament play the hard way.

As for league play, the fact that FF can now go down on a natural 1 makes it even more important than before IMO. A couple of 1's early and you could be in deep trouble if you start with FF too low.

Joshua Dyal · Post by **Joshua Dyal** » Tue Oct 15, 2002 4:10 pm

Wow, lots of replies. Let's see...

Marcus -- Get the Ref! isn't a game-breaker in my opinion. Maybe it's because I usually play a high AV team, but last time I played my opponent got it, and he didn't cause a single casualty with it (I think it added up to a whopping 2 stun results.) With Norse or Skaven, I agree the risk would be greater. Still, though, it really doesn't make fouling much more dangerous than it was in "straight from the book" 3rd edition, which I was pretty used to. And, you keep talking about Tournament play. I'm talking about normal league play. Obviously you're going to structure a team differently for a tournament than you will for a league with no end in sight. You're not even arguing the same thing I am here.

Haar -- my experience is like yours -- Field Invasion, which is potentially the scariest kick-off result, still hasn't actually changed any game results. I've rarely scored when I wouldn't otherwise, preventing a score that I wouldn't otherwise, or had real permanent casaulties from a Field Invasion. Now, you mention being up near TR 200 and still having low FF, but will you still have low FF at that level? My assumption is that after a few games you will start to see FF creep upwards. That's how it's usually gone in leagues I've played in in the past.

McDeth -- no, I know exactly how common it is, having taken a few college statistics classes in my day, it's not hard to figure out. Perhaps my definition of common differs from yours. Or perhaps I embrace the inherent riskiness of the game more than most coaches here. I don't see this is a real long-term threat to the team, although it could potentially be devastating to a single game. Even then, see above -- it's not as bad as some make it out.

Deathwing -- yeah, I can see what you mean there. In a recent "mini-league" with just me and one other player, my FF of 2 went down after a thoroughly dismal night. I haven't played with the new LRB league rules much, though. I'm curious to see what the FF does over time.

I think the crux of my argument is that in league play, any one particular game -- yeah, sure, you want to win them all, but you won't -- won't devastate you. I don't know what it does over time, but it seems much more likely to grow than to shrink over time, given the modifiers that can affect it. I'd predict that by the end of the season, your FF wouldn't be too different than any other team in the same ballpark TR range, and you wouldn't have had to front-load it to get there. I'll experiment a bit with that theory and report, though! Or if anyone wants to set up a statistical experiment that we could run, I'd be really interested in seeing the results.

Deathwing · Post by **Deathwing** » Tue Oct 15, 2002 4:34 pm

I guess the referrals to tourney play are to illustrate just how important it can be on the pitch, with consideration of gate/winnings put aside.
A PI taking out a few players, coupled with a Get a Ref result could result in major long term damage, esp. if your oppo has a Dirty Player.
A low FF is simply too much of a gamble IMO, the trade off of a stronger playing roster just doesn't make the risk worthwhile.

Joshua Dyal · Post by **Joshua Dyal** » Tue Oct 15, 2002 4:59 pm

What exactly is the risk, though? Lots of anecdotal information, no hard and fast numbers (except the 1/36 chance of a PI -- but we already all knew that, I think.)

Maybe that's what we need Mestari to program next?

longfang · Post by **longfang** » Tue Oct 15, 2002 5:05 pm

Pitch invasion, get the ref, cheering fans and thrown rock.

At the Spyke tourney in reading you can get a point for each touch down up to a max of 3 (on top of your win, draw or loss points). Each touch down will mean another roll on the kick off table to restart the game. If you go for the max points then fan factor will quite possibly come into every game.